中央经济工作会议解读：壮大新动能，深入“反内卷”

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of "high-quality development" over "steady progress," indicating a shift in priorities for 2026[4] - The growth target for 2026 is likely set around "around 5%," with internal control targets between 4.8% and 5.0%[5] Policy Focus - Expanding domestic demand remains the top priority, with a balanced emphasis on both consumption and investment[5] - The fiscal policy will maintain necessary deficits and debt levels, with a projected deficit rate of 4.0% for 2026 and an increase in special government bonds to approximately 1.5 trillion yuan[9][8] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will adopt a "moderately loose" stance, with flexibility in implementing rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments[11] - Expected interest rate cuts in 2026 are projected to be in the range of 10-20 basis points, with a reserve requirement ratio reduction of 50 basis points[11] Structural Reforms - The conference highlighted the need to address "involution" in competition, with plans to establish a unified national market and regulate tax incentives and subsidies[4][15] - Emphasis on innovation and technology, including the establishment of three major international innovation centers and a focus on service industry enhancements[15] Risk Management - The priority for risk management has shifted, with a decreased focus on the real estate sector, indicating a more stable approach to market stabilization[22] - Local government debt management remains a high priority, reflecting ongoing concerns about financial stability[22]