2025年11月价格数据点评：重视“通胀正常化”的可能性

Report Information - Report Date: December 11, 2025 [1] - Report Team: Fixed Income Research Team [2] - Analysts: Chen Xi, Wang Shuaizhong [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The judgment that "inflation is difficult to maintain an upward trend" has certain risks. If inflation continues to rebound in 2026, bond yields will also rise. It is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of rising inflation data and the rebound of bond yields [6]. - In the context of economic expectation correction, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise; the allocation of stocks and bonds will continue to switch, and bond yields are expected to continue to rise [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 November Price Data - CPI: In November 2025, CPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month (previous value was +0.2%) and increased by 0.7% year - on - year (+0.2%). Core CPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month (+0.2%) and increased by 1.2% year - on - year (+1.2%) [3]. - PPI: In November 2025, PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month (+0.1%) and decreased by 2.2% year - on - year (-2.1%) [3]. Factors Affecting Price Data - CPI year - on - year increase: The year - on - year increase in CPI was mainly driven by the change of food prices from decline to rise, and the impact of rising gold prices continued. Vegetable prices increased counter - seasonally, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% in November, affecting CPI to rise by about 0.31 pct. Gold prices have been rising since November, and due to the decline in gold prices from November to December 2024, the year - on - year gold price remained high, continuously driving the year - on - year increase in CPI. However, pork prices are still at a historical low, with a significant negative drag. In November, pork prices decreased by 15.0% year - on - year, affecting CPI to decrease by about 0.21 pct. As the base begins to decline, the drag of pork prices on CPI may gradually decrease. The situation of eggs, also a cheap protein, is similar. In addition, attention should be paid to the price changes of high - price proteins, such as beef, whose CPI year - on - year in November reached 6.2% [4]. - CPI month - on - month decline: The month - on - month decline of CPI was mainly affected by the decrease in service prices. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, travel decreased seasonally, and the combined decrease in hotel accommodation, air tickets, travel agency fees, and vehicle rental fees affected CPI to decrease by about 0.13 pct month - on - month [5]. - PPI month - on - month increase: PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, the same as in October. Since November 2024, PPI month - on - month has been negative or 0%. The improvement of supply - demand relationship and the impact of imported factors promoted the first positive month - on - month PPI in October 2025, and the upward trend continued in November, mainly due to the seasonal increase in the demand for coal and gas for winter heating, which pushed up prices. The year - on - year decrease in PPI was 2.2%, and the decline increased by 0.1 pct compared with October, mainly affected by the higher base in the same period of 2024 [5]. Market Conditions - On December 10, the long - term yield fluctuated downward, with funds being the main buyers of bonds. The Fed's 25bp interest rate cut met market expectations. Attention should be paid to the situation of the Central Economic Work Conference that may be held this week or in the near future [7].