中国白银期货研究框架

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Silver supply mainly comes from mineral production and recycling, while demand includes industrial use, investment use, photographic use, and jewelry use. The silver inventory - to - demand ratio exceeds 100%, resulting in limited impact of supply - demand gap changes on prices. Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and the gold - silver ratio is negatively correlated with copper prices and rises during the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cutting cycle [13][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industrial Chain - Supply and Demand Composition - Supply is divided into mining, recycling, and official sales. Demand mainly consists of industrial use, investment demand, photographic applications, and jewelry manufacturing. In terms of percentages, supply is 81.0% from mining, 18.7% from recycling, 0.1% from official sales, and 0.1% from net hedging supply. Demand is 58% for industrial use, 2% for photography, 17% for jewelry, 5% for silverware, and 18% for net physical investment [20][23]. - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Million ounces) - From 2021 - 2025F, total supply ranges from 1,023 to 1,031, with mine production between 831 - 835 and recycling between 184 - 194. Total demand ranges from 1,103 to 1,148, with industrial demand (total) between 564 - 681. The market balance is negative throughout the period, and the silver price (London price) is 25 in 2021, 22 in 2022, 23 in 2023, 28 in 2024, and 0 in 2025F [24]. - China Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Million ounces) - From 2021 - 2024, total supply ranges from 146 to 150, with mine production between 110 - 113 and recycling between 33 - 40. Total demand ranges from 184 to 298, with industrial demand (total) between 152 - 275. The market balance is negative throughout the period, and the silver price (London price) is 25 in 2021, 22 in 2022, 23 in 2023, and 28 in 2024 [26]. 3.2 Silver Contract - SGE Margin Contracts - The contract code is Ag(T + D), with a trading unit of 1 kg/lot, a quotation unit of yuan/kg, and a minimum price fluctuation of 1 yuan/kg. Trading hours are from 9:00 - 15:30 during the day and 19:50 - 02:30 at night. The contract has a continuous trading term, and physical delivery is of silver ingots with a standard weight of 15 kg and a fineness not less than 99.99% [33]. - SHFE Futures Contract - The trading unit is 15 kilograms/lot, the price quotation is yuan (RMB)/gram, and the minimum price fluctuation is 1 yuan/gram. The contract months are from 1 - 12. The last trading day is the 15th day of the contract month (adjusted for holidays), and the delivery period is two consecutive business days after the last trading day. The minimum trade margin is 4% of the contract value [36]. - Silver Price Spread - The price spread is calculated as SGE Silver – Loco London/31.1035 (troy ounce) * VAT rate * RMB exchange rate [44]. 3.3 Pricing Model - Limited Sensitivity to Supply - Demand Fluctuations - With the silver inventory - to - demand ratio exceeding 100% and a relatively high absolute inventory level, fluctuations in the supply - demand gap have a diminished impact on prices [51]. - Gold Sets the Trend, with Industrial Demand Shaping Price Sensitivity - Silver's absolute price follows gold. The gold - silver ratio, which indicates relative elasticity, is negatively correlated with copper prices, mainly because silver's industrial properties are affected by the macro - demand cycle [55]. - Gold - Silver Ratio and Monetary Policy Cycle - During the Federal Reserve's rate - cutting cycle, the gold - silver ratio rises [56].