申万宏源证券晨会报告-20251212

Group 1: Central Economic Work Conference Highlights - The conference emphasized five "musts" in response to new circumstances, focusing on the prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand domestically [8][11][19] - The fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with a clear emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure [8][11][19] - Monetary policy aims to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, highlighting the dual support role of monetary policy for the economy and prices [8][11][19] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Insights - The conference introduced measures for "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [11][14][19] - There is a focus on stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations for policies to support both supply and demand sides, including potential mortgage rate reductions and financing support for real estate companies [11][14][19] - The emphasis on "good housing" indicates a shift towards high-quality property development, with policies expected to support this direction [11][14][19] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on ten key investment areas for the future, including artificial intelligence, robotics, aerospace, and strategic resource metals [12][19] - The construction sector is expected to stabilize in 2026, with emerging sectors likely to gain higher investment opportunities due to national strategic implementations [19][20] - The report highlights the potential for value reassessment in commercial real estate and the "good housing" sector, indicating a positive outlook for quality commercial enterprises during the monetary easing period [14][19][20]