中央经济工作会议定调积极，需求预期改善或提振基本金属

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central economic work conference has a positive tone, and the improvement of demand expectations may boost basic metals. In the short - to - medium term, positive macro - expectations and supply disruption concerns continue to support prices. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin remain, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [1]. - For different metals, the report gives specific views: copper prices will oscillate and rise; alumina prices will continue to be under pressure; aluminum prices will oscillate and rise; alloy prices will oscillate at a high level; zinc prices will oscillate at a high level; lead prices will stabilize and rebound; nickel prices will run weakly; stainless - steel prices will correct; tin prices will oscillate and strengthen [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - View: The Fed continues to cut interest rates, and copper prices oscillate and rise, showing a trend of being oscillatory and strong in the medium - term [6][7][8]. - Analysis: The Fed cuts interest rates and restarts balance - sheet expansion, providing liquidity support. The supply of copper ore is tight, and CSPT will reduce the production capacity of mine copper by more than 10% in 2026. The terminal demand is weak, but the spot is at a premium, and the overseas squeeze on positions boosts prices [6][7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - View: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure, with an expected oscillatory trend [8][9]. - Analysis: High - cost production capacity fluctuates, and there are short - term disturbances, but the supply contraction is insufficient, with strong inventory accumulation. Raw material prices are weak, and the futures - spot price difference is large. Although the valuation is low, the price may still be under pressure [9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - View: Aluminum inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices oscillate and rise, showing an oscillatory and strong trend in the short - term and a potential upward shift of the price center in the medium - term [12][13]. - Analysis: The macro - environment is complex, with fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations. The domestic production capacity is high, while overseas supply may tighten in the long - term. The terminal demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - View: Cost support continues, and the market oscillates at a high level, with an oscillatory and strong trend in the short - and medium - term [14][15]. - Analysis: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The supply side has production reduction risks, while the demand side shows marginal improvement, and the inventory shows a mixed trend [14][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - View: Social inventory has decreased, and zinc prices oscillate at a high level, with an overall oscillatory trend [16][18][19]. - Analysis: The Fed's dovish stance and weak economic data increase the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory may not accumulate, but there is still a potential for price decline in the long - term [18][19]. 3.1.6 Lead - View: Social inventory remains at a low level, and lead prices stabilize and rebound, showing an oscillatory trend [20][21]. - Analysis: The spot premium is stable, and the supply of lead ingots is tight in some regions. The demand from the battery industry is relatively good, and the inventory is at a low level [20][21]. 3.1.7 Nickel - View: LME inventory remains at a high level, and nickel prices run weakly, showing an oscillatory trend [21][23]. - Analysis: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. The overall supply of nickel resources is loose, and the inventory is high, but there are potential supply - side policy risks [21][23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - View: Weak nickel prices drive the stainless - steel market to correct, with an expected range - bound oscillation [24]. - Analysis: The cost support of nickel iron is strengthening, but the stainless - steel production is expected to decline in December. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, but the profit compression and cost support limit the price decline [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - View: Supply concerns remain unresolved, and tin prices oscillate and strengthen [25][27]. - Analysis: The supply of tin is tight, with slow复产 in mines, restricted exports from Indonesia, and limited production in Africa. The demand is growing in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries, which will push up the price [26][27]. 3.2行情监测 - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (non - ferrous metals index) are presented, with specific values and changes on December 11, 2025 [154][156].