新能源及有色金属日报：几内亚GIC矿预期复产在即-20251211

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views - The decline in electrolytic aluminum prices is limited, with weak spot market trading and slight repair of spot discounts. Social inventory is basically stable with a slight decline. Consumption has rigidity in the off - season, and the low inventory level is not a negative factor for prices. There is optimism about future consumption, with unchanged expectations of interest rate cuts and unreflected re - inflation. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the economic conference and the expected inventory reduction before the Spring Festival. Overseas liquidity risks need to be vigilant. [6] - GIC is allowed to resume operations. Once a $125 million payment is transferred to the treasury, it can start operating the former Axis mine, indicating the government's support for local bauxite mining and reducing policy uncertainty. The alumina fundamentals lack positive factors, with no significant reduction in domestic supply, continuous increase in social inventory, and weak procurement willingness of electrolytic aluminum plants. The near - month contract is at a large discount to the far - month contract. The cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. [6][7] Group 3: Key Data Aluminum Spot - On December 10, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,770 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,660 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 30 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Futures - On December 10, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,805 yuan/ton, closed at 21,935 yuan/ton, a change of - 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 22,025 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 21,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 159,863 lots, and the position was 185,806 lots. [2] Inventory - As of December 10, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 595,000 tons, a change of - 1000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 68,587 tons, a change of 724 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 520,800 tons, a change of - 2500 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Alumina Spot Price - On December 10, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2790 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2740 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2820 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2885 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2890 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - On December 10, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2540 yuan/ton, closed at 2477 yuan/ton, a change of - 81 yuan/ton or - 3.17% from the previous trading day's closing price, with a maximum price of 2546 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2474 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 283,517 lots, and the position was 278,854 lots. [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 10, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use primary aluminum was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a daily price change of 100 yuan/ton. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 21,000 yuan/ton, with a daily price change of 100 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory and Cost - Profit - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons. The theoretical total cost was 21,387 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 387 yuan/ton. [4][5]