农产品日报：郑棉持续震荡，糖价依旧承压-20251211

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound. In the long - term, with increased domestic cotton consumption and low expected imports, cotton prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to the target price policy for next year's cotton [3] - Sugar: The fundamental driving force is downward, but the current valuation is low. At the beginning of the sugar - making season, sugar mills have the intention to support prices. The short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the impact of capital on the market should be watched [6] - Pulp: Due to the digestion of previous negative factors, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently, but the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit its upward space. The impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts on the market should be noted [9] Group 3: Summary of Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton contract 2601 yesterday was 13,780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,830 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,004 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The USDA's December report shows a slight decrease in global cotton production and consumption in the 2025/26 season, and a slight increase in ending inventory [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere has brought supply pressure, and global textile consumption is weak, so ICE US cotton is under pressure in the short - term. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range. Domestically, cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. With the end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, supply is abundant in the short - term. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved and inventory pressure is acceptable [2] Group 4: Summary of Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar contract 2601 yesterday was 5328 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.28%). Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5370 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5340 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. As of now, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 2025/26 season, 7 less than the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - The global sugar harvest has suppressed the raw sugar market, but the short - term decline is limited. There is no sign of a reversal. Domestically, sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. Sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, and supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the supply pressure is high [4] Group 5: Summary of Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp contract 2605 yesterday was 5436 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.93%). Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5005 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market is stable, with individual price fluctuations [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills are shutting down for maintenance. Domtar has permanently closed a paper mill, and Finnforest has temporarily shut down a pulp mill. Demand: European port pulp inventories have decreased in October, but in China, terminal demand is insufficient, paper mills' operating rates are low, and port inventories are at a historical high [8]