Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-11 03:00Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets focus on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates more aggressive rate cuts if Hassett is elected, but there is uncertainty due to Powell's term, economic factors, and inflation. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. Domestically, the economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid, and attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation [2]. - The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are interpreted as "QE - like" measures, which are negative for the US dollar index. The RMB exchange rate is affected by US economic data, the appointment of the next Fed Chair, and domestic economic policies. Seasonal settlement effects may support the RMB's appreciation [4]. - The current inflation data supports low interest rates, and the bond market has rebounded. Although there are rumors of mortgage subsidy policies, the bond market reaction is limited. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - The container shipping market on the European route has a mix of long and short factors. There is a possibility of price cuts in late December, and the price of the 02 contract may be pushed up due to the shipping companies' price - holding intentions [6][7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, platinum and palladium are expected to have their price centers lifted in the medium and long term, while copper prices will be mainly driven by fundamentals after the Fed's rate cut. Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, while alumina is expected to be weak. Zinc will maintain a high - level shock, tin will be in a wide - range shock, and lithium carbonate will have a short - term callback pressure [11][13][15]. - In the energy and chemical market, oil prices are affected by the US - Venezuela tension and the Fed's rate cut. LPG will maintain a shock, PTA - PX will follow the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, MEG - bottle chips will face a decline in terminal demand, and urea will be in a range between fundamentals and policies [34][37][40]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified, the oilseeds market is in a positive spread, the oil market will continue to be sorted, cotton prices may have room to rise, sugar prices will remain weak, egg prices have a long - term over - capacity problem, apple prices will remain strong, and jujube prices will be in a low - level shock [73][74][76]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market focuses on the appointment of the next Fed Chair. China's November CPI rose year - on - year, and the real estate sector had a significant rise in the afternoon session [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are negative for the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to US economic data and domestic economic policies [3][4]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market rebounded, and the current inflation data supports low interest rates. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - Container Shipping on the European Route: The market has a mix of long and short factors, and there is a possibility of price cuts in late December [6][7]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - Platinum and Palladium: Prices oscillated and corrected. The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are factors, and in the medium and long term, the price centers are expected to be lifted [11]. - Gold and Silver: The market generally rose, and in the short term, it is expected to be in shock, while in the long term, it is expected to rise [12][13]. - Copper: Prices were strongly sorted, and after the Fed's rate cut, they were mainly driven by fundamentals [14][15]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [15][16]. - Zinc: Prices maintained a high - level shock [17][18]. - Tin: Prices were affected by the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) and are expected to be in a wide - range shock [18][19]. - Lithium Carbonate: There is short - term callback pressure, but in the long term, it has the value of bottom - fishing allocation [21]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The fundamentals have not improved, and the prices are expected to be weak [22][23]. - Lead: Prices are expected to be in shock, with support at the bottom [24]. Steel - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Prices rebounded slightly, and the overall market is expected to be in a range shock, with the rebar in the range of 3000 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil in the range of 3200 - 3500 [25][26]. - Iron Ore: Prices were affected by real - estate news, and the downward space is expected to be limited [27][28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The second - round price cut has started, and coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, while coke may face inventory accumulation pressure [29][30][31]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: Demand is gradually weakening, and prices are expected to be weakly shocked [32]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Prices were lifted due to the US - Venezuela tension, and the Fed's rate cut has a limited impact on prices [34][35][36]. - LPG: Prices maintained a shock, with a relatively stable supply and demand situation [37][38][39]. - PTA - PX: Prices followed the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good in the energy and chemical sector [40][41][42]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: Terminal demand declined comprehensively, and supply - side negative feedback began to appear. Prices are expected to be short - term in shock and long - term in a downward trend [43][44][46]. - Urea: Transactions weakened, and prices are expected to be in a range shock [47][48]. - PP: The spot market's pessimistic sentiment dragged down prices, and further short - selling is not recommended [49][50][51]. - PE: The supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern continued, and prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level shock [52][53][54]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Prices were weakly shocked, with different supply - demand situations for pure benzene and styrene [55][56]. - Fuel Oil: Prices were in a narrow - range shock, with a stable supply and a mixed demand situation [57]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The cracking spread was low, and the fundamentals have improved, but it is recommended to wait and see [58]. - Asphalt: Prices fluctuated in a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the winter - storage policy [59][60]. - Rubber: Rubber prices rebounded due to weather disturbances and geopolitical conflicts, and are expected to be in a range shock [61][62]. - Soda Ash and Caustic Soda: Soda ash prices are under pressure due to over - supply expectations; glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels; caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly shocked [65][66][67]. - Pulp - Offset Paper: Pulp futures prices reached a four - month high, and both pulp and offset paper are recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - Log: Newly registered warehouse receipts suppressed the price, and it is recommended to participate with caution [69][70]. - Propylene: Prices were weakly shocked, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [71][72]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified, and the long - term trend can be bullish, but the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals [73]. - Oilseeds: The positive spread continued, and the market is affected by import and domestic supply - demand situations [74][75]. - Oils: The MPOB report was negative, and prices are expected to continue to be sorted [76]. - Cotton: Prices broke through the pressure level, and if they hold steady, there may be further upward space [77]. - Sugar: Prices remained weak [78][79]. - Eggs: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and short - term rebounds can be lightly speculated [80]. - Apples: The near - month contract was strong, and the overall market remained strong [81][82]. - Jujubes: Prices were in a low - level shock, and the short - term downward space may be limited [83][84].