甲醇日评20251211：宏观情绪托底，甲醇或逐步止跌企稳-20251211

Report Summary - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: After the Fed's expected 25bp rate cut last night, although the market had anticipated this, the rate cut still helps to support the macro sentiment. Most assets such as US stocks, crude oil, gold, and copper rose last night, which is also beneficial for the sentiment of the domestic commodity market to be supported. Methanol has limited upward momentum in the short - term due to inventory pressure and cost - profit factors, but it is difficult to fall significantly under the support of macro sentiment and may gradually stabilize [1] Key Data Summary Methanol Futures Prices - MA01 decreased from 2066 yuan/ton on December 9, 2025, to 2053 yuan/ton on December 10, 2025, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton or 0.63% [1] - MA05 decreased from 2143 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton or 0.65% [1] - MA09 decreased from 2143 yuan/ton to 2126 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton or 0.79% [1] Spot Prices - In Taicang, it increased from 2075 yuan/ton to 2077.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.12% [1] - In Shandong, it decreased from 2222.5 yuan/ton to 2220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.11% [1] - In Guangdong, it decreased from 2067.5 yuan/ton to 2060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.36% [1] Cost and Profit - Coal - to - methanol profit increased from 213.3 yuan/ton to 225.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.6 yuan/ton or 5.91% [1] - Northwest MTO profit decreased from -244.2 yuan/ton to -301.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.6 yuan/ton or 23.59% [1] - East China MTO profit decreased from -862.57 yuan/ton to -919.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton or 6.61% [1] Important Information - The domestic methanol main contract MA2601 showed a weak shock, opening at 2082 yuan/ton, closing at 2066 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 787,400 lots and an open interest of 723,600 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1] - Overseas, several methanol plants in a certain Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance. As of December 7, the number of methanol shipments loaded at ports in the Middle - Eastern country in December reached around 350,000 tons [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the short put option of 01 contract until expiration (viewpoint score: 0) [1]