尿素早评20251211：宏观情绪托底，尿素或逐步企稳-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The current low valuation of urea is the result of the market's consensus on the pressure of supply-demand surplus. The recent price decline is affected by cooling sentiment and falling coal prices. From the perspective of driving factors, the urea price is supported at a low level. With the support of macro sentiment, urea may gradually stabilize. It is recommended to go long on far-month contracts at low prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Futures Prices: On December 10, UR01 was 1645 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day), UR05 was 1713 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan or 0.12%), UR09 was 1721 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.59%), and Henan was 1690 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.60%) [1] - Spot Prices: In Hebei, it was 1720 yuan/ton (unchanged), in the Northeast, it was 1740 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu, it was 1680 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - Spreads: The spread between Shandong spot and UR was -13 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan from the previous day), and the 01 - 05 spread was -68 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - Upstream and Downstream Prices: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi were 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively (both unchanged). The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan were 3160 yuan/ton and 2670 yuan/ton respectively (both unchanged). The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu were 5233 yuan/ton and 5250 yuan/ton respectively (both unchanged) [1] 2. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1650 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1655 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1645 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1647 yuan/ton, and the持仓 volume was 142790 lots [1] 3. Market Logic - Bullish and Bearish Logic: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected last night, which helped support the macro - sentiment. Most assets such as U.S. stocks, crude oil, gold, and copper rose, which is also beneficial to the sentiment of the domestic commodity market. Urea has a limited rebound from the bottom, and its valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. There is still an expectation of supply reduction in mid - to - late December. On the demand side, export quotas can relieve the domestic supply - demand pressure, and the winter reserve demand can support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Go long on far - month contracts at low prices (viewpoint score: 0) [1]