2025年中央经济工作会议信号：政策回归常态，静待物价回升

Economic Outlook - The overall tone of the Central Economic Work Conference indicates a return to normalcy, with no extraordinary stimulus expected in the baseline scenario[3] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at around 5% or slightly below, requiring an average annual growth of 4.17% over the next decade to achieve the goal of reaching the GDP per capita of moderately developed countries by 2035[3] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be "appropriately loose," with an emphasis on "flexibility and efficiency"[3] - It is anticipated that there will be 1-2 instances of both reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions in 2026, with a focus on structural monetary policy tools[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with an emphasis on "optimizing expenditure structure" and maintaining a deficit rate around 4% for 2026[4] - The scale of special government bonds is expected to be less than the previous year's 1.8 trillion yuan, shifting focus from scale to structural optimization[4] Domestic Demand Policy - The policy emphasizes "domestic demand as the main driver," with a combination of measures to optimize supply and stimulate consumption[4] - The expected scale of subsidies for replacing old products in 2026 is projected to remain at 300 billion yuan, the same as in 2025[4] Technology and Innovation - There is a strong emphasis on cultivating new growth drivers and expanding artificial intelligence initiatives, highlighting the urgency of technological innovation[8] - The government aims to establish a matching talent system, industrial chain, institutional framework, and financial system to support high-quality development actions in key industries[8] Risk Management - The risks associated with real estate and local government debt are considered controllable, with a shift in focus from risk prevention to other priorities in the current year's agenda[8] - The emphasis on risk management has been downgraded from fifth to eighth in priority, indicating improved control over these sectors[8] Asset Strategy - The focus on A-share market performance is driven by earnings recovery, with a correlation between A-share trends and fundamental economic conditions expected to increase in 2026[9] - If the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive in the second half of 2026, it could support a recovery in earnings and a potential upward trend in A-shares[9] Overall Economic Strategy - The strategy includes a focus on high-quality development, optimizing existing resources, and enhancing the quality of growth rather than merely expanding quantity[3] - The government aims to balance domestic economic work with international trade dynamics, ensuring stability in employment, prices, and overall economic growth[19]