我国氯碱化工行业“产能重塑”的必要性研究

Investment Rating - The report indicates a need for "capacity restructuring" in the chlor-alkali chemical industry due to significant supply-demand imbalances, particularly in PVC products [2][31]. Core Insights - The core conclusion of the report is that in an optimistic scenario, there will be a substantial supply shortage of caustic soda, while the supply-demand gap for PVC will be relatively small. In a pessimistic scenario, caustic soda will experience a slight oversupply, and PVC will continue to face significant oversupply [2][28][31]. Industry Background - The chlor-alkali chemical industry primarily produces caustic soda (sodium hydroxide) and PVC (polyvinyl chloride), with China being the largest global producer, accounting for approximately 40% of caustic soda and 45% of PVC production [4][6]. - The industry has undergone significant cyclical changes over the past decade, influenced by factors such as supply-side reforms, environmental regulations, and the COVID-19 pandemic [6][9]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The report forecasts the supply-demand relationship for caustic soda and PVC from 2026 to 2028 under different market scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, the annual supply gap for caustic soda will be 295,000 tons, 549,000 tons, and 813,000 tons over the three years, respectively. In the pessimistic scenario, there will be an oversupply of 28,000 tons, 59,000 tons, and 93,000 tons [23][28]. Current Supply and Demand Issues - The chlor-alkali industry faces significant challenges, including supply-demand imbalances, operational difficulties for enterprises, structural contradictions, and increasing environmental pressures. The demand for PVC is heavily tied to the real estate sector, which has been experiencing a downturn [17][31]. - As of 2024, the domestic caustic soda capacity is projected to be around 50 million tons, with a production of approximately 41 million tons, while PVC capacity is expected to be about 29 million tons, with a production of around 22 million tons [16][17]. Future Projections - The report emphasizes the urgent need for the industry to address the "alkali-chlorine balance" structural issue and accelerate the implementation of the "capacity restructuring" strategy to enhance competitiveness and achieve sustainable development [32].