能源化工日报-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production at a very low level, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain the range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [3]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol futures market will enter a short - term consolidation. Although port inventory has decreased, future port pressure still exists due to high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals still face pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - The urea futures market continues to rise in shock. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock at a low valuation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. - The current view on rubber is neutral. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [13]. - The PVC fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historical low and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, the supply is high and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices before the industry substantially reduces production [14][16]. - The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. However, the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high overall inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected to be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices [26]. - For PTA, the processing fee is expected to gradually stabilize and repair, and the unexpected overhauls are expected to decrease. The polyester load is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle chip load is difficult to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is expected to decrease in December, and the inventory accumulation rate at the port may slow down. However, the medium - term supply situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to the rebound risk [29]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - Market Information: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 4.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.04%, at 439.70 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 38.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.57%, at 2382.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 20.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.67%, at 2986.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 411.92 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; gasoline inventories increased by 6.40 million barrels to 220.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%; diesel inventories increased by 2.50 million barrels to 116.79 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.20 million barrels to 21.69 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.26%; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.38 million barrels to 42.57 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production at a very low level, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain the range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [3]. Methanol - Market Information: The price in Taicang increased by 27, in Lunan by 7.5, and in Inner Mongolia by 2.5. The 01 contract of the futures market increased by 21 yuan, reported at 2074 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 31. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 30, reported at - 46 [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. Although port inventory has decreased, future port pressure still exists due to high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals still face pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - Market Information: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract decreased by 7 yuan, reported at 1638 yuan, the basis was + 42, and the 1 - 5 spread was + 3, reported at - 65 [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The futures market continues to rise in shock. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock at a low valuation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price fluctuated and consolidated. The low inventory of exchange - traded RU warehouse receipts was a bullish factor. The bulls were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than the previous week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than the previous week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Both domestic and export shipments slowed down. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 112.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1 tons, an increase of 1.9%; the total social inventory of dark rubber was 73 tons, an increase of 2.4%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%; and the total rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.48 (+ 0.98) tons [11]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current view is neutral. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC01 contract decreased by 52 yuan, reported at 4276 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4300 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was 24 (+ 22) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 286 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 870 (0) yuan/ton, the ethylene price was 745 (0) US dollars/ton, and the caustic soda spot price was 710 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the calcium carbide method was 82.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene method was 73.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The in - plant inventory was 32.6 tons (+ 0.3), and the social inventory was 105.9 tons (+ 1.6) [13]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historical low and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, the supply is high and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices before the industry substantially reduces production [14][16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene was 5265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5428 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton; the basis was 169 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB plant profit was - 225.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.42 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, an increase of 0.10%; the PS operating rate was 57.60%, an increase of 1.70%; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a decrease of 1.52%; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 6538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 45.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.93 tons, and the trader inventory was 4.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan/ton [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. However, the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract was 6154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis was 76 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 54.63 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75 tons, the trader inventory was 20.05 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 tons, and the port inventory was 6.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The LL - PP spread was 364 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton [23][24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high overall inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected to be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. PX - Market Information: The PX01 contract increased by 80 yuan, reported at 6834 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 US dollars, reported at 836 US dollars. The basis was - 5 yuan (- 44) according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 1 - 3 spread was 18 yuan (+ 10). The PX load in China was 88.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 78.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and the Saudi Satorp plant overseas restarted. The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged from the previous month. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and a 550,000 - ton plant of China Taiwan FCFC was under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 13.9 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of December, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5 tons. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 tons. In terms of valuation cost, the PXN was 273 US dollars (+ 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (+ 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 101 US dollars (- 7) [25]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices [26]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA01 contract increased by 48 yuan, reported at 4664 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 35 yuan, reported at 4640 yuan. The basis was - 21 yuan (+ 4), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan (+ 10). The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged from the previous month. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and a 550,000 - ton plant of China Taiwan FCFC was under maintenance. The downstream load was 91.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The 300,000 - ton filament and 250,000 - ton staple fiber plants of Hengyi were under maintenance, and the 200,000 - ton long - stopped filament plant of Sanfangxiang restarted. The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 83%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 67%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 5 was 216.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 18 yuan to 172 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 193 yuan [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The processing fee is expected to gradually stabilize and repair, and the unexpected overhauls are expected to decrease. The polyester load is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle chip load is difficult to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG01 contract decreased by 83 yuan, reported at 3599 yuan. The East China