宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-12-20251212

Report Overview - The report is a methanol morning report from Baocheng Futures dated December 12, 2025, focusing on the methanol 2605 contract [1]. Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall reference view is "weak operation" [1]. - With the digestion of previous bullish factors, due to increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the sharp correction of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures rally was blocked and fell into a correction. Although port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they remain at high levels, and downstream demand improvement is insufficient with weakening olefin profit on the disk. The domestic methanol futures are expected to maintain a weak - oscillating trend on Friday [5]. Summary According to Related Information Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be weak [1]. Price and Market Logic - Core logic: The previous bullish factors have been digested. The increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the sharp correction of domestic coal futures prices have led to the blockage of the methanol futures rally. The port and inland inventories, though slightly decreasing, are still high, and downstream demand improvement is insufficient with olefin profit on the disk weakening. On Thursday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a weak - oscillating trend with slightly lower prices, and are expected to continue this trend on Friday [5].