宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年12月12日）-20251212

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that Treasury bond futures are expected to consolidate in the short term, with a trading range due to both upward and downward pressures. In the medium to long term, the policy environment is conducive to a bullish outlook for Treasury bond futures, but short - term upward momentum is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, and TS is "weak", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded with fluctuations yesterday. The latest inflation data has rebounded but remains weak, and the liquidity of the capital market is loose. The Fed's interest rate cut in December has increased the expectation of monetary easing policy space, leading to a strong performance of Treasury bond futures this week. In the medium to long term, the monetary policy environment tends to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is insufficient need for a short - term interest rate cut, and the concentrated supply of Treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year will bring some pressure, limiting the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures [5].