中央经济工作会议学习：科技突破，供需优化

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference indicates a tolerance for actual GDP growth rates, focusing on technological breakthroughs and supply-demand optimization, with nominal GDP growth expected to improve[1] - The economic target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5%, with actual performance likely closer to the upper limit[2] Policy Direction - Emphasis on "quality" improvement over mere growth, with a focus on technological advancements and balanced supply-demand structures[2] - Anticipated price increases and improved corporate profits due to supply-demand structure optimization, benefiting industries related to reducing "involution" competition[2] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain around 4%, with total local special bond issuance projected at approximately 4.4 to 4.5 trillion yuan[4] - The broad fiscal deficit rate is estimated to be around 8.1% for 2026, indicating no significant increase in fiscal strength[4] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will likely remain moderately loose, with potential for rate cuts, although the space for such actions is limited[5] - The focus will be on stabilizing growth and managing inflation, with flexible use of monetary tools to support demand and innovation[5] Technological Focus - The conference highlights the urgency of technological breakthroughs, particularly in AI and emerging industries, to foster new growth drivers[6] - Plans to establish international technology innovation centers in key regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area[6]