国内财政与货币政策宽松预期推升铜价：沪铜日评20251212-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to the expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance sheet expansion, production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines, and the expectations of loose domestic fiscal and monetary policies, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Copper Futures - On December 12, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 92,210, up 360 from the previous day; the trading volume was 138,584 lots, down 7,482; the open interest was 190,380 lots, down 9,993; the inventory was 31,461 tons, up 2,530; the Shanghai copper spread was 455, up 605; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 92,665, up 965 [3]. 3.2 London Copper - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,833.5, up 274 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was not available; the spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract was 0, down 11.69; the spread of the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract was 0, down 243.5; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 7.7923, down 0.15 [3]. 3.3 COMEX Copper - On December 11, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.488, up 0.16 from the previous day; the total inventory weight was 447,298, up 4,251 [3]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply side: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased month - on - month. - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods have decreased compared to last week, while those of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased. High copper prices have led to downstream rigid - demand purchases. - Inventory side: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China, the inventory of electrolytic copper in the LME, and the inventory of COMEX copper have all increased compared to last week [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 85,000 - 90,000 and the resistance level around 97,000 - 107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,600 - 11,000 and the resistance level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; and the support level around 5.0 - 5.2 and the resistance level around 5.6 - 6.0 for US copper [3].