招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their specific supply - demand situations and external factors [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: Market price first declined then rose, approaching $4300/ounce. Fundamentals include an increase in US initial jobless claims, Fed's plan to buy short - term Treasuries, and changes in gold inventories. Suggested to go long [1]. - Silver: Overseas market is tight, but domestic inventory has been accumulating. Suggested to take profit on long positions [1]. Base Metals - Copper: Price hit a new high. Supply of copper ore is tight, and suggested to buy on dips [2]. - Aluminum: Price of the main contract decreased slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is slightly decreasing. Expected price to oscillate with an upward bias [2]. - Alumina: Price of the main contract decreased. Some alumina plants are under maintenance, and electrolytic aluminum plants operate at high load. Before large - scale production cuts, spot price is under pressure, and beware of technical rebounds [2]. - Silicon: Price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in a state of anti - involution. Social inventory has been slightly accumulating. Suggested to wait and see [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: Price of the main contract increased. Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. Expected to maintain inventory reduction in December, but the shortage is narrowing. Suggested to wait and see [3]. - Polysilicon: Price of the main contract increased. Production is stable, and demand is weakening. Follow the impact of new delivery brands on the market [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: Price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand are weak, and there is a significant structural differentiation. Suggested to wait and see and close previous positions [4][5]. - Iron Ore: Price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand are weak, and the market is in a forward - discount structure. Suggested to wait and see and close previous positions [5]. - Coking Coal: Price of the main contract decreased. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures valuation is high. Suggested to wait and see and close previous positions [5]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean price rose slightly. Supply has a slight reduction in the near - term and large supply in the long - term. Demand has strong US soybean crushing and uncertain exports. Trade the expectation of South American bumper harvest, and domestic market is near - strong and far - weak. Medium - term depends on tariff policy and production [6]. - Corn: Futures price is weak, and spot price has fallen. Inventory is low, and there is a short - term supply shortage. However, downstream demand may decline. Spot price is expected to fall, and futures price will oscillate downwards [6]. - Edible Oils: Malaysian palm oil price fell. Supply is in seasonal decline, and demand is decreasing. There is no major contradiction in the short - term, and pay attention to production and biodiesel policy [7]. - Cotton: US cotton price oscillates narrowly, and domestic cotton price rises. US cotton export sales decline, and Brazilian cotton production is expected to decrease. Domestic textile mills plan to replenish inventory, and high - count yarn sales are good. Suggested to buy on dips [7]. - Eggs: Futures price is weak, and spot price is stable. Laying hen inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a state of balance. Futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. - Pigs: Futures price is weak, and spot price varies regionally. Demand is expected to increase seasonally, and supply pressure is relieved. Futures price is expected to oscillate [7]. Energy Chemicals - PVC: Price of the main contract decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weakening. Social inventory is at a high level. Suggested to short or do reverse arbitrage [8]. - Glass: Price of the main contract decreased. Price is falling, and production cuts are increasing. Inventory is decreasing, and demand is weak. Suggested to do reverse arbitrage [8][9]. - Soda Ash: Price of the main contract decreased. New plants are put into production, and price is falling. Supply is increasing, and inventory is at a high level. Suggested to short or do reverse arbitrage [9].