铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar index fell, and commodities generally strengthened, with gold, silver, and copper rising significantly, while oil prices continued to adjust under the expectation of loose supply and demand. In China, the central economic work conference emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," and the policy in 2026 will still focus on "stability" [2][3]. - The continued strengthening of the interest rate cut expectation supported the rise of precious metals, and the silver price reached a new high. The central economic work conference released positive signals, and the copper price is expected to continue to run strongly at a high level in the short term. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to inventory reduction, while the alumina price continues to be weak due to oversupply [4][6][8]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the tightening of zinc ore supply and the decline of social inventory. The lead price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to low inventory and differentiated consumption. The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to favorable fundamentals [12][13][14]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to decline weakly due to the weakening of demand. The steel price is expected to fluctuate due to general industrial data. The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand. The double - coke price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the weakening of demand in the off - season [16][17][18]. - The soybean meal futures are expected to stop falling and stabilize and enter a shock operation due to good soybean auction results. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to the rise of rapeseed oil and the expected increase in palm oil inventory [21][24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 44,000 to 236,000, the largest single - week increase in four and a half years. The stock market showed a differentiated trend, and the US dollar index fell to 98.1 after the Fed's interest rate cut [2]. - Domestic: The central economic work conference emphasized "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency," and the policy in 2026 will still focus on "stability." The A - share market fell on Thursday, and the bond market continued to rebound and repair [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures continued to rise. COMEX gold futures rose 2.00% to $4309.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.83% to $63.98 per ounce. The market's bet on the continued interest rate cut in January was strengthened, and the silver price reached a new high, driving the synchronous rise of gold, platinum, and palladium [4]. Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rise, and LME copper broke through the $11,800 line. The macro environment at home and abroad improved, and the supply of concentrates continued to tighten. It is expected that the copper price will continue to run strongly at a high level in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,970 yuan per ton, up 0.23%. The aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline, mainly due to transportation problems in the northwest. The low inventory supported the aluminum price to fluctuate strongly [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,469 yuan per ton, down 1.4%. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and the market short - selling atmosphere is strong, so the price continues to be weak [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,965 yuan per ton, up 0.36%. The raw material supply is tight, the consumption is weak, and the demand side is waiting and seeing. It is expected that the cast aluminum price will fluctuate at a high level [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc first rose and then fell during the day and rebounded sharply at night. The supply of zinc ore continued to tighten, the processing fees at home and abroad were under pressure, and the social inventory decreased. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate strongly in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated narrowly during the day and sideways at night. The production of primary and secondary lead smelters decreased, and the social inventory was at a low level, but the consumption was differentiated. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate and consolidate [13]. Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated narrowly during the day and closed up at night. The supply of tin ore was affected by the conflict in Congo - Kinshasa, and the demand for AI semiconductors was optimistic. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate strongly [14]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply is converging, and the demand is weakening. The establishment of a polysilicon platform company may drag down the short - term demand. It is expected that the industrial silicon price will decline weakly [15][16]. Steel (Spiral and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated and fell. The industrial data was average, and the supply and demand were both weak. It is expected that the steel price will fluctuate [17]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated and fell. The demand was weak, the supply was strong, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the iron ore price will be under pressure [18]. Double - Coke (Coking Coal and Coke) - On Thursday, double - coke futures fluctuated weakly. The demand in the off - season was weak, the supply was strong, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the double - coke price will fluctuate weakly [19]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 05 contract of soybean meal closed flat, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal rose 0.35%. The soybean auction results were good, and there was news that the customs clearance time of imported soybeans might be extended. It is expected that the soybean meal futures will stop falling and stabilize and enter a shock operation [20][21]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 01 contract of palm oil rose 0.44%. The production of Malaysian palm oil in early December increased, and the inventory was expected to rise. The rapeseed oil price rose due to quarantine problems. It is expected that the palm oil price will fluctuate within a range [23][24].