早盘速递-20251212

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized continuing proactive fiscal policies, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, debt scales, and expenditure volumes, optimizing fiscal expenditure structures, and using policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. It also focused on stabilizing the real - estate market [2]. - The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration ordered Mianchi Liangjiawa Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for 2 days due to major accident hazards [2]. - Mongolia plans to export 90 million tons of coal in 2026 and aims for 100 million tons in 2027 with the operation of border railways [2]. - Citigroup predicts that oil prices may fall to an average of $60 per barrel by Q1 2026, with Brent crude expected to drop to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025 and have an annual average of $62 per barrel in 2026, ranging from $55 - $65 per barrel [2]. - As of December 11, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.4943 million tons, down 0.82 million tons (0.55% decline) from Monday, and production was 735,400 tons, up 31,500 tons (4.48% increase) week - on - week [2]. 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: silver, lithium carbonate, pulp, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3]. - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 2.79%, precious metals 30.91%, oilseeds and oils 8.87%, soft commodities 3.13%, non - ferrous metals 24.63%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 11.38%, energy 2.58%, chemicals 10.72%, grains 1.40%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.59% [3]. 3. Sector Positions - The chart shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions from December 5 to December 11, 2025 [4]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.70%, a monthly decline of 0.39%, and an annual increase of 15.56%. Other indices also had different performance [5]. - In the fixed - income market, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had different daily, monthly, and annual performance [5]. - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index had various performance [5]. - Other assets like the US dollar index and CBOE volatility index also showed different trends [5]. 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6].