国泰君安期货所长早读-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The Central Economic Work Conference further clarified the direction and tasks of next year's economic work. There are new refinements in some areas compared to the Political Bureau meeting, including releasing many signals in traditional growth - stabilizing areas, emphasizing work related to prices, and focusing on "quality and efficiency improvement" and "cross - cycle" structural adjustment. Next year's economy is expected to continue to stabilize, with the repair of short - boards such as prices and more prominent economic development quality and efficiency [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference continued to emphasize科技创新 and had new refinements in traditional growth - stabilizing areas, such as clearly mentioning "flexibly and efficiently using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", "maintaining sufficient liquidity", and focusing on real estate with the focus on "controlling increments, reducing inventories, and optimizing supplies". It is expected that the deficit rate will remain and the total deficit scale will continue to expand moderately next year. These measures are conducive to improving the growth expectation [8]. - In terms of prices, the policy shows an attitude of attention. It is expected that the certainty of price repair next year will further increase [8]. - Next year's policy will focus on "quality and efficiency improvement" and "cross - cycle" structural adjustment in addition to stabilizing growth [8]. Commodity Analysis Precious Metals - Silver: The price reached a new high, with London silver accelerating to $64.3 per ounce. The current spot contradiction is difficult to solve, with low domestic inventory and a slight increase in overseas lease rate. There is a risk of a squeeze in both Shanghai and London. The market is expected to continue to be strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure level around $65 [10]. - Gold: The price showed an upward trend, with factors such as expected interest rate cuts and macro - economic policies influencing it [21]. Base Metals - Copper: The price rose due to the decline of the US dollar. China's copper imports increased in November, and Chile's copper exports also increased year - on - year. The trend intensity is strong [25][27]. - Zinc: The price is short - term strong with internal and external market resonance. Although the most severe stage of overseas supply shortage has passed, the risk of low inventory still exists. There is an expectation of zinc element surplus next year, but the short - term price has upward elasticity [11]. - Lead: The domestic inventory increased, and the price was under pressure [31]. - Tin: There was a new supply disturbance. The price showed a certain fluctuation [34]. - Aluminum: The price center moved up. The supply - demand surplus of alumina remained unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [37]. - Nickel: The structural surplus situation has changed, but the game contradiction remains unchanged. Stainless steel's supply and demand continue to be weak, and the cost - support logic is enhanced [46]. Energy and Chemicals - LPG: The price dropped significantly at night due to factors such as the decline of crude oil, weakening demand, and warehouse receipt pressure. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term [13]. - PX: The demand is seasonally weakening, but the supply is still tight, showing a high - level shock market. The overall supply - demand is tight, and there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future [86]. - PTA: The price is in a high - level shock situation, supported by the cost of PX. The 05 contract can hold a long - PX and short - PTA strategy [87]. - MEG: The trend is weak. Attention should be paid to the support of unplanned maintenance on the market. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 [88]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The reduction in production is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [183]. - Soybean Oil: The driving force from US soybeans is insufficient, and the price fluctuates mainly [183]. - Soybean Meal: US soybeans rose, and the domestic soybean meal showed a strong - side shock [189]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot price. The price showed a certain fluctuation [193]. - Sugar: The price is in a range - bound shock [196]. - Cotton: The price is in a strong - side shock, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [200]. - Eggs: The price is in an adjustment shock [206]. - Hogs: The price increase due to cooling was less than expected, and the warehouse receipt increased. The trend is weak [208]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills. The price showed a certain stability [212]. Others - Iron Ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [57]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The apparent demand data is weak, and the price is in a low - level shock [60][61]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: The spot price is short - term firm, and the price is in a wide - range shock [65]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The price is in a wide - range shock [70]. - Log: The price is in a low - level shock [74]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): The short - term sentiment is optimistic, and the medium - term is a shock market [156]. - Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip: There is medium - term pressure, and a long - TA and short - PF/PR strategy can be held [170]. - Offset Printing Paper: It is advisable to wait and see [173]. - Pure Benzene: The price is in a short - term shock [178].