尿素早评20251212：关注成本端能否企稳-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent decline in urea prices is due to cooling sentiment and falling coal prices. It is necessary to focus on whether the cost - end of urea can stabilize. The low valuation of urea reflects the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but there are expectations of supply reduction in mid - to late December, and the export quota and winter reserve demand will relieve the supply - demand pressure and support the price. The trading strategy is to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1638 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.58%; UR09 closed at 1716 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.29% [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.59%; Shanxi was 1540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.65%; Henan remained unchanged at 1690 yuan/ton; Hebei was 1710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.58%; Northeast remained unchanged at 1740 yuan/ton; Jiangsu was 1690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.60% [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 7 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 65 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The price of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 3180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.63%, and remained unchanged in Henan at 2670 yuan/ton. The price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5233 yuan/ton and 5250 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1651 yuan/ton, the highest was 1656 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1635 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1638 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1645 yuan/ton, and the position was 127,530 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Go long on far - month contracts at low prices [1]