镍与不锈钢日评：修复后区间震荡-20251212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: On December 11, the main nickel futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure. After the price correction, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1][2]. - Stainless Steel: On December 11, the main stainless - steel futures contract fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium widened. Although the cost side is stabilizing, the fundamentals are loose. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The recommended trading strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - Futures Prices: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three) decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 115,400 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 120,019 lots, a decrease of 13,204 lots. The open interest of the active contract was 106,302 lots, an increase of 3,719 lots [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures decreased by 296 tons to 33,939 tons. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 243,702 tons to 244,494 tons, and the total LME inventory decreased by 240 tons to 253,092 tons [2]. - Spot Prices: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price was 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 122,825 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [2]. - Supply and Demand: SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore to decline in the second half of December. The supply of nickel ore is sluggish, and the price is flat. In December, domestic nickel - iron production decreased, and Indonesian production also declined. On the demand side, ternary material production decreased, stainless - steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - Futures Prices: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three) decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 12,260 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 69,415 lots, a decrease of 10,516 lots. The open interest was 64,258 lots, a decrease of 7,223 lots [2]. - Inventory: The Shanghai stainless - steel futures inventory decreased by 120 tons to 61,378 tons. The 300 - series social inventory last week was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons [2]. - Spot Prices: The average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) was 23,775 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Supply and Demand: In December, stainless - steel production decreased, especially the 300 - series. Terminal demand was weak. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was flat [2].