国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251212

Report Overview - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Report Issuer: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Nickel: There is a transformation in structural surplus, but the game contradictions remain unchanged [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand continue to operate weakly, and the cost - support logic is strengthened [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: With continuous inventory reduction and uncertain resumption of production of large factories, it will fluctuate at a high level [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in Xinjiang [2][12] - Polysilicon: The futures market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,870 yuan, down 1,220 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel main contract was 12,500 yuan, down 55 yuan. The import profit of nickel plate was - 973 yuan, up 425 yuan from the previous day [4] - Macro and Industry News: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [4][5] - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 96,980 yuan, up 2,900 yuan from the previous day. The spot - 2601 was - 3,480 yuan, up - 2,100 yuan from the previous day [9] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 93,559 yuan/ton, up 932 yuan/ton from the previous working day. This week, the lithium carbonate output was 21,998 tons, an increase of 59 tons from last week, and the industry inventory was 111,469 tons, a decrease of 2,133 tons from last week [10] - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The Si2601 closing price was 8,285 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan from the previous day; the PS2605 closing price was 55,765 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from the previous day. The industrial silicon - social inventory was 56.1 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons compared to a week ago [12] - Macro and Industry News: The Central Economic Work Conference determined the key tasks for next year's economic work, including promoting reform, building a unified national market, and deepening the reform of state - owned enterprises [12][13] - Trend Intensity: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [13]