中泰期货晨会纪要-20251212

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors and varieties having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the macro - financial sector, A - shares are in a wide - range shock, and the bond market sentiment is gradually improving; in the black sector, steel and ore prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, and coal and coke prices may fluctuate weakly; in the agricultural product sector, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends [11][14][28]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and determines 8 key tasks, including promoting investment to stop falling and stabilizing, and stabilizing the real estate market [6]. - Mexico will impose 5% - 50% tariffs on some products from China and other Asian countries starting next year, and China has launched a trade - investment barrier investigation [6]. - There are rumors about the clearance of quantitative trading equipment in exchanges, but no specific notice has been received [7]. - The storage chip industry is facing a severe supply - demand imbalance, with the shortage of DRAM expected to last until the first quarter of 2027, and the demand for DDR memory growing by 20.7% [7]. - Morgan Chase successfully issued a US commercial paper using blockchain, with payments in USDC [7]. - The key indicator for the "ChatGPT moment" of embodied intelligence is the "double 80%", which may occur in the next one or two years [7]. - OpenAI launches the GPT - 5.2 model, which is expected to bring more economic value. It will be launched in ChatGPT for paid users [8]. - The US trade deficit in September narrowed by nearly 11% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level since June 2020 [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 44,000, and the number of continued jobless claims decreased by the largest amount in four years [8]. - The EU is considering postponing the plan to ban the sale of new fuel - powered cars until 2040 and allowing plug - in hybrid and extended - range electric vehicles to be sold for up to five more years [8]. - Although the yield of Japanese 10 - year government bonds has soared, the Bank of Japan has no intention of intervening for now [9]. Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to think in terms of wide - range shocks. A - shares are in a downward shock, and the technical weakness of broad - based indexes has been repaired. Attention should be paid to possible adjustments after the realization of positive news [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - If the consensus on the decline of the capital - level center is reached, medium - and short - term bonds may stabilize first and then the rebound may spread to ultra - long - term bonds. The bond market sentiment is gradually improving [13]. Black Steel and Ore - From a policy perspective, the 2026 Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are in line with market expectations without new policies. From a fundamental perspective, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for coils is fair. The supply of steel mills may decline, and the inventory is at a high level. Steel and ore prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to - long - term [14][15]. Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the demand for raw materials from steel mills is weakening. The potential negative feedback risk still restricts the prices in the short - term [17][18]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to take a long - at - low approach; for manganese silicon, it is recommended to take a short - at - high approach in the medium - term [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory is decreasing. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and aggressive investors can short at high prices [22]. Lead - The social inventory of lead is stable. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold short positions [23][24]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with a limited decline space [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon may have some valuation repair opportunities, and polysilicon prices are expected to be strong [26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The supply of cotton is temporarily loose, but the demand is expected to improve. It is suitable to buy at low prices after adjustment [28]. Sugar - The supply - demand situation of domestic sugar is expected to be bearish. Sugar prices are in a downward shock, and it is advisable to wait and see [30]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, dragging down the near - month contracts. The far - month contracts may be strong due to the expected decline in inventory, but the current valuation is high, so it is advisable to wait and see [32]. Apples - Apple prices are expected to fluctuate [34]. Corn - It is recommended to short the far - month contracts at high prices and pay attention to the changes in the spot price in the production area [35]. Red Dates - It is recommended to buy the far - month contracts at low prices [36]. Live Pigs - The spot market of live pigs shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in the near - month contracts [37]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The rebound of crude oil prices lacks sustainable driving force, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [39]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil prices and is mainly affected by geopolitical and macro - factors [40]. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak demand. It is recommended to think in terms of a weak - shock approach and short after the price rebounds [41]. Rubber - The price of rubber is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see, and one can sell call options at high prices [42]. Methanol - The near - month contracts of methanol are expected to be in a weak - shock state, and the far - month contracts can be considered for a long - position after smooth inventory reduction [43]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is slightly stable. It is recommended to take a short - term shock approach, avoid long positions in the near - month contracts, and wait and see for long positions in the main contracts [45][46]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt is expected to have a larger fluctuation range, and the future focus is on the price bottom after winter storage [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain is expected to continue to be under pressure. One can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on TA and short on PF [48]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The price of LPG is expected to decline, as the downstream chemical industry's operating rate may fall [49]. Pulp - The fundamentals of pulp are improving slightly. It is advisable to wait and see during the day, and one can go long after a callback or sell out - of - the - money call options for hedging [50][51]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly bearish, and the spot price is under pressure. The disk is expected to be under pressure [52]. Urea - The spot market of urea is expected to be stable and weak. It is recommended to take a shock approach [53].