能源化策略：IEA?5?来?次下调原油过剩预期，化?仍受到供给端拖累

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of coal and crude oil continue to be weak. The IEA has lowered its crude oil surplus forecast for the first time since May, but the chemical industry is still dragged down by the supply side [1]. - The prices of chemical industry chain products follow the raw materials and decline. The supply pressure in the petrochemical industry remains high, and the prices of most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [2]. - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical premiums and supply pressures, and is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - The asphalt market is affected by geopolitical disturbances, and the futures price rises first and then falls, with an over - valued absolute price [9]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has insufficient price support, and the low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall [9][11]. - Most chemical products such as methanol, urea, and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly, while PX and PTA may fluctuate within a certain range [12]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure continues. - Main Logic: Affected by the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela, geopolitical premiums fluctuate. The IEA and OPEC monthly reports strengthen the surplus expectation, but the IEA has lowered the surplus forecast for next year. The price of Russian oil is weakening, and the floating storage is rising. - Outlook: The surplus pattern continues, and the geopolitical expectation fluctuates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - Viewpoint: The asphalt futures price rises first and then falls under geopolitical disturbances. - Main Logic: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists, and the situation between the US and Venezuela heats up. The asphalt futures price rises but then falls due to the drag of black varieties. The pricing weight returns to Shandong spot. - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The price support of high - sulfur fuel oil is insufficient. - Main Logic: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement exists, and the three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weak. The refinery processing demand is weak, and the fuel oil demand is still weak. - Outlook: The supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall. - Main Logic: It follows the crude oil to fall, and the strengthening of natural gas boosts the demand expectation. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution. - Outlook: It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation and follows the crude oil to fluctuate [11]. Methanol - Viewpoint: The coastal unloading is lower than expected, and the inland supply and demand support, so methanol fluctuates and consolidates. - Main Logic: The port inventory unexpectedly decreases, but it is still at a high level. The inland market is affected by the inflow of low - price port goods and weather disturbances. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [25]. Urea - Viewpoint: The purchase of compound fertilizers may decrease, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. - Main Logic: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as the suspension of the promotion of off - season storage and the possible decrease in compound fertilizer procurement. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction, off - season storage progress, and compound fertilizer factory operation [26]. Ethylene Glycol - Viewpoint: The market pessimism spreads, and the existing device maintenance cannot reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. - Main Logic: The price continues to fall, and the current device maintenance cannot change the situation of supply exceeding demand. - Outlook: The long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a low - level range [18][19]. PX - Viewpoint: The tight spot of PTA supports the negotiation of PX, but the upstream cost support is poor and lacks substantial benefits. - Main Logic: The international oil price is weak, and the PX price rises and then回调. The market has a strong expectation, but the upstream cost support is insufficient. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and the PXN is expected to be in the range of [260, 300] [12]. PTA - Viewpoint: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains strong. - Main Logic: The upstream cost rises and then falls, and the PTA price follows the upstream. The downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the spot circulation is tight. - Outlook: The price follows the cost to fluctuate and consolidate, and the processing fee runs within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02 [12]. Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news. - Main Logic: The recent import volume of pure benzene arrives at the port in large quantities, and the port inventory accumulates rapidly. However, it is expected to improve marginally in Q1 2026. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate [14][16]. Styrene - Viewpoint: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news, with a slightly stronger trend. - Main Logic: The short - term trading is mainly around liquidity issues. The port inventory is depleted, and the tradable volume is not abundant. In Q1 2026, the pure benzene pattern improves, which supports styrene. - Outlook: It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment improvement in early 2026 [17]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Viewpoint: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. - Main Logic: The upstream cost is divided, the PTA price is briefly supported, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the polyester staple fiber price. - Outlook: The price follows the upstream to fluctuate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [21][22]. Polyester Bottle Chip - Viewpoint: The upstream polyester raw material costs are divided. - Main Logic: The upstream raw material futures fall weakly, the PTA follows the cost to rise, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the overall valuation of polyester bottle chips. - Outlook: The absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate, and the processing fee has enhanced support below [23]. LLDPE - Viewpoint: The raw material and maintenance support are still limited, and the price fluctuates weakly. - Main Logic: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates weakly, and the plastic's own fundamental support is limited. The downstream demand enters the off - season. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [29]. PP - Viewpoint: The coal price is still weak, and the price fluctuates weakly. - Main Logic: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates downwards, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [30]. PL - Viewpoint: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and it fluctuates. - Main Logic: The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, but the downstream PP price is weak, dragging down PL through the decline in powder production. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31]. PVC - Viewpoint: The production reduction scale is limited, and the price decline is cautious. - Main Logic: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the marginal enterprise production decreases, but the surplus expectation is not reversed. - Outlook: The price decline space is cautious [33]. Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: The upstream has not reduced production, and the price is weakly cautious. - Main Logic: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and the upstream profit is close to the break - even point, but there is no production reduction yet. - Outlook: The price decline space is cautious [33][34]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - Inter - period spreads: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, and PP have different degrees of change [36]. - Basis and warehouse receipts: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and PX are provided [37]. - Inter - variety spreads: The inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, and MA - UR are provided [39]. (2) Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report provides a framework for monitoring the basis and spreads of multiple chemical products such as methanol, urea, and styrene, but specific data is not fully presented. (3) Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline [281]. - Energy Index: The energy index on December 11, 2025, has a daily decline of 1.00%, a 5 - day decline of 2.66%, a 1 - month decline of 3.14%, and a year - to - date decline of 10.67% [283].