2026年美股展望：跨越“不着陆”

Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to gradually move towards expansion in 2026, with economic growth potentially higher than in 2025, characterized by a front-loaded low and a back-loaded high throughout the year [5][15]. - The first quarter of 2026 may represent a relative low point due to the prolonged government shutdown in October 2025, but subsequent recovery is anticipated driven by fiscal and monetary policy support [15][37]. - Consumer spending is projected to steadily recover, supported by the gradual realization of benefits from the "Big Beautiful Act" (OBBBA), which will reduce tax burdens and increase disposable income [15][20]. Market Performance - The US stock market is expected to see further gains in 2026, primarily driven by earnings growth, with an overall EPS increase of over 12% anticipated [5][43]. - The technology sector is expected to continue its dominance in the first half of 2026, while a shift towards cyclical sectors is anticipated in the latter half as economic recovery progresses [49][50]. Sector Analysis - Small-cap stocks are expected to show greater elasticity in 2026, supported by lower borrowing costs and pent-up demand as the economy enters the early stages of recovery [5][49]. - The technology sector is projected to maintain its leading position in the first half of the year, with significant contributions from earnings, while the second half may present risks due to potential stagnation in capital expenditures [49][50]. - Cyclical sectors such as industrials, real estate, consumer discretionary, and financials are expected to benefit from the economic recovery, particularly as real estate begins to thaw and new home sales show signs of improvement [5][49][57].