铅锌日评20251212：沪铅震荡偏强，沪锌或有反弹-20251212

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Lead: The lead price may fluctuate strongly due to tightened raw material supply, stable support at the bottom, and reduced pressure on non - ferrous metals from the Fed's dovish interest rate cut. [1] - Zinc: The zinc price may rebound in the short term due to the Fed's dovish interest rate cut, but the weak demand restricts the upside space, and there is a risk of a high - level decline after the positive news is exhausted. [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Lead - Price and Market Data: On December 12, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.59% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract rose by 0.23% to 17,155 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 4.29% to 34,885 lots, and the open interest decreased by 9.06% to 35,754 lots. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 235,475 tons, while the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 14.79% to 17,711 tons. [1] - Fundamentals: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Last week, more smelters had maintenance, especially delivery - brand ones, causing a decline in primary lead production. In the secondary lead sector, some smelters also had maintenance plans. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening, while the automobile battery market is approaching the traditional replacement peak season. [1] - Trading Strategy: Buy at low levels with a light position. [1] Zinc - Price and Market Data: On December 12, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.17% to 23,040 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract decreased by 0.35% to 22,995 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 21.27% to 93,062 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.02% to 88,499 lots. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 60,350 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 3.59% to 52,802 tons. [1] - Fundamentals: The mine supply is tight, TC is continuously decreasing, and the smelter production cut range is expanding. The export window occasionally opens, and the supply is shrinking. The demand is still weak, with reduced downstream procurement due to cold weather and environmental protection impacts. [1] - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rally and subsequent correction. [1]