宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年12月12日）-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, with the overall market showing a mixed pattern of "near - strong and far - weak" in the soybean market and complex driving factors for each variety. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - View: Short - term and intraday view is "oscillating weakly", medium - term view is "oscillating". The overall reference view is "oscillating weakly". [5][6] - Core Logic: The soybean market shows a "near - strong and far - weak" pattern due to the game between tight spot and weak expectations. US soybeans are in low - level oscillation, and Argentina's tariff reduction squeezes the US soybean market share. With the expected high - yield in Brazil, the support for far - month import costs declines. In the domestic market, the oil mill operating rate drops, and soybean auctions have high - price transactions, indicating short - term replenishment demand. In December, the arrival of imported soybeans may reach 9.5 million tons, and the state reserve continues to sell. The 05 contract corresponds to the period of concentrated soybean listing in South America, and the basis has weakened in advance. [5] 3.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - View: Short - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating". [6][7] - Core Logic: The US soybean oil price needs to pay attention to the final implementation of the US biofuel policy, the implementation progress of Brazil's blending plan, and the evolution of the global soybean - palm oil price difference. The domestic soybean oil is still in the "weak reality" stage, and the de - stocking process of high inventory determines the price center. The contradiction between varieties is intensifying, and the domestic - foreign price difference of soybean oil is inverted. The wide - range oscillation range of the short - term soybean oil market is difficult to break. [7] 3.3 Palm Oil (P) - View: Short - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating". [6][8] - Core Logic: The palm oil market shows a pulse - type rebound rather than a trend reversal, driven by short - covering and technical repair. However, palm oil has limited follow - up strength. The export decline in Malaysia in early December has widened, and production has increased month - on - month. The inventory pressure still affects the price. In the future, attention should be paid to Indonesia's biodiesel policy and the procurement rhythm of major importing countries. [8]