宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025年12月12日）-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, and the overall view is volatile and weak. The steel price is in the process of finding the bottom due to the weak real - world situation [1]. - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The supply has contracted and reached a low level, providing support for steel prices, but the sustainability of short - process steel mill production cuts is questionable. The demand is weak, and the high - frequency indicators are at a low level, and the downstream industries have not improved, which will continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the current supply - demand double - weak situation, the fundamentals have not improved, the steel price in the off - season is under pressure, and it is expected to continue the volatile bottom - finding trend [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term (within one week), medium - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday trends are all judged as volatile, with the intraday being volatile and weak, and the overall view is volatile and weak. The core logic is the weak real - world situation and the steel price finding the bottom [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are both weak. The supply has continued to contract and reached a low level, which provides support for steel prices, but the profit of short - process steel mills is acceptable, so the sustainability of production cuts is in question. The demand is weak, high - frequency indicators are in a low - level operation state, and the downstream industries have not improved, which is expected to continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the current supply - demand double - weak situation, the fundamentals have not improved, the steel price in the off - season is under pressure, and the relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the steel price will continue the volatile bottom - finding trend [2].