20251212申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. On the spot market, some prices of linear LL from Sinopec were lowered by 100, while those from PetroChina remained stable. For drawn PP, prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina were stable. From a fundamental perspective, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached a high, and demand is gradually being released. Previously, the market was driven by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, causing the valuation of polyolefins to decline. Although the international crude oil price rebounded briefly after the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, it continued to weaken at the close, dragging down domestic chemical products, and the polyolefin market generally remained weak [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For LL, the previous day's closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6534, 6558, and 6600 respectively, with price drops of -27, -41, and -35 and declines of -0.41%, -0.62%, and -0.53%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6177, 6241, and 6280 respectively, with price changes of 15, -2, and -3 and changes of 0.24%, -0.03%, and -0.05% [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of LL's January, May, and September contracts were 231491, 295211, and 3959, and the open interests were 227085, 451436, and 7497, with open interest changes of -39927, 41542, and 1127. For PP, the trading volumes of January, May, and September contracts were 257560, 176198, and 3665, and the open interests were 351293, 400615, and 19776, with open interest changes of -28910, 26024, and 706 [2] - Spreads: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -24, -42, and 66, compared to previous values of -38, -36, and 74. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -64, -39, and 103, compared to previous values of -81, -40, and 121 [2] Spot Market - Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2077 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 603 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6040 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2059 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 596 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6030 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - Mid - stream: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6600 - 6900, 6550 - 6800, and 6600 - 7000 respectively. The previous price ranges were 6600 - 6900, 6550 - 6850 (8100 - 8250), and 6650 - 7050. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6300, 6000 - 6200, and 6150 - 6350, and the previous price ranges were 6150 - 6350, 6100 - 6250, and 6200 - 6400 [2] News - On Thursday (December 11), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.60 per barrel, down $0.86 from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.47%, with a trading range of $57.01 - 58.94. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.28 per barrel, down $0.93 from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.49%, with a trading range of $60.77 - 62.63 [2]