银河期货每日早盘观察-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market on Thursday showed a widespread decline. The A - share market was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and corporate earnings reports, and it may continue to explore the bottom on Friday. The bond market continued to repair, with the long - end performing stronger. In the agricultural product market, different varieties had different trends, with some showing potential for a rebound and some in a state of shock. The black metal market was affected by factors such as raw material prices and policies, and steel prices were weakly volatile. The non - ferrous metal market was generally driven by the weakening of the US dollar, with some metals rising. The energy and chemical market was under pressure from supply and demand, and most varieties showed a weakening trend [19][22][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the market fell across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index and other major indices declined, and stock index futures also followed the decline of the spot market. The Fed's interest rate cut and corporate earnings reports affected market sentiment. On Friday, the A - share market may explore the bottom due to inertia, and it is recommended to wait for the market to oversell and then go long on the dips. Consider IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage when the discount widens, and use bullish spreads for options [19][20][21]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central economic work conference's statements on fiscal and monetary policies weakened the probability of an unexpected fiscal policy next year and made policy rate cuts still expected. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions in TL contracts on rallies and pay attention to potential futures - spot arbitrage opportunities in TF contracts [22][23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - CBOT soybean index rose slightly, and the US soybean export sales data showed some changes. In the context of a potentially large harvest in South America, international soybeans have a limited upside, but the domestic soybean meal may have a phased rebound due to factors such as profit losses. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and sell wide - straddle options [27][28]. Sugar - International sugar prices were oscillating at a low level, and domestic sugar prices also showed a similar trend. Brazil's sugar production was approaching the end of the season, and the supply pressure was gradually easing. In China, although the new sugar season had an increasing production, the high production cost provided some support. It is recommended to build long positions on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell put options at low levels [31][33]. Oilseeds and Oils - The external market of oils showed different trends. Malaysian palm oil had a risk of inventory accumulation, while domestic soybean oil was gradually reducing inventory, and rapeseed oil was expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - short trading in a band - trading manner, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35][36]. Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn stabilized, while the domestic northeast corn price was weak, and the port price declined. The 03 corn contract was expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the 03 contract on corrections, go long on the 05 and 07 contracts on long - term declines, conduct 3 - 7 corn reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [39][40]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs was generally stable, but the overall supply pressure still existed. It is recommended to mainly hold short positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options [41][42]. Peanuts - The peanut spot price was stable, and large - scale oil mills started to purchase. The 01 peanut contract may have a downward space. It is recommended to lightly go short on the 01 peanut contract on rallies, conduct 1 - 5 peanut reverse arbitrage, and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options [44][46]. Eggs - Egg prices were mainly stable. The recent reduction in the number of culled chickens had eased the supply pressure. It is recommended to expect the near - term contracts to oscillate in a range and consider building long positions on the far - term contracts on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [47][49]. Apples - The apple inventory was low, and the fundamentals were strong. It is recommended that the apple price may oscillate at a high level, conduct long 1 and short 10 arbitrage, and wait and see for options [52][53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The external market of cotton was weak, but the domestic new cotton sales were good, and there were positive factors such as a possible reduction in the planting area in Xinjiang next year. It is recommended to go long on the dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [56][58]. Black Metals Steel - Affected by raw materials such as coal and coke, steel prices were weakly volatile. Although the steel inventory continued to decline, the demand was affected by the season. It is recommended that the steel price will continue to be weakly volatile, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread on rallies, and wait and see for options [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Mongolia planned to increase coal exports, and the market expected a weak trend. The coking coal price continued to decline, and the spot price was also weak. It is recommended that the double - coking futures will continue to be weakly volatile [65][66]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore was generally stable, and the domestic demand for steel products was weak. It is recommended to adopt a bearish view on iron ore, wait and see for arbitrage and options [72][73]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, the cost had some support, but the demand was under pressure. For ferromanganese, the cost was rising, but the demand was also weak. It is recommended that ferroalloys will oscillate at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [74][75]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Affected by the weakening of the US dollar, gold and silver prices rose. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options for silver [77][78]. Platinum and Palladium - Driven by the weakening of the US dollar and the bullish trend of precious metals, platinum and palladium showed a phased upward trend. It is recommended to go long on platinum on the dips based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for palladium, conduct long platinum and short palladium arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options [81][82]. Copper - The copper price reached a new high due to the weakening of the US dollar. Although the supply was tight in 2026, the downstream demand was insufficient. It is recommended that the copper price will be strongly volatile, pay attention to inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and wait and see for options [84][88][89]. Alumina - The alumina price was weak due to slow warehouse receipt digestion and high inventory. It is recommended that the alumina price will continue to be weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [91][93]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Driven by macro and micro factors, the aluminum price rebounded. It is recommended that the aluminum price will be strongly driven by the macro - fundamentals, wait and see for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Affected by the market sentiment, the aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. The spot market was weak, and the demand was weakening. It is recommended that the aluminum alloy will be strong along with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [98][101]. Zinc - The zinc price was strongly volatile due to the reduction of domestic social inventory. It is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see for arbitrage and options [103][104]. Lead - The lead price oscillated in a range. The domestic supply of secondary lead had a reduction expectation, but the consumption was gradually weakening. It is recommended to try short positions on rallies [107][108]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated downward due to the oversupply situation. It is recommended that the nickel price will continue to decline, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [109][111][112]. Stainless Steel - Affected by the decline of the nickel price, the stainless steel price oscillated at a low level. It is recommended that the stainless steel price will oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage [113][114]. Industrial Silicon - Affected by the air pollution warning in Xinjiang, the industrial silicon price may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions, and aggressive investors can participate in short - term long positions, conduct long polysilicon and short industrial silicon arbitrage, and stop losses on selling out - of - the - money call options [115]. Polysilicon - Although the downstream demand was under pressure, the polysilicon enterprises had a strong willingness to support the price. It is recommended to buy on corrections, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy both call and put options [116][117]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was running at a high level, but there was a pressure of inventory accumulation in the medium term. It is recommended to buy after a sufficient correction in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [119][120]. Tin - Due to the escalation of the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the tin price rose strongly. It is recommended that the tin price will be strong in the near future, wait and see for options [120][122]. Shipping Container Shipping - The spot freight rate showed some improvements. The 02 contract had incorporated some price - increase expectations and was expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to partially take profits and partially hold long positions in the EC2602 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [125][126]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude oil supply - demand pressure was difficult to change, and the price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to be bearish on the short - term trend, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil inter - month spread is weak, and wait and see for options [128][129]. Asphalt - The asphalt price was affected by the decline of crude oil prices and was expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended that the BU2602 contract will oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2602 contract [131][132][133]. Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was frequently disturbed by device changes, and the high - sulfur fuel oil was expected to be weakly stable. It is recommended that the fuel oil price will be weakly volatile, the low - sulfur cracking is neutral, the high - sulfur cracking is weak, and wait and see for options [134][136][137]. PX & PTA - The PX supply was abundant, and the PTA had an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is recommended that the PX & PTA price will be weakly volatile, conduct PTA1 and 5 contract reverse arbitrage, and sell both options [138][139][140]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene supply was stable and the demand decreased, and the benzene - styrene basis weakened. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage and options [141][143][144]. Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol inventory had a de - stocking pressure, and the price was falling. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [145][146]. Short - Fiber - The short - fiber supply - demand situation was weak, and the processing fee was under pressure. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [147][148]. Bottle Chips - The bottle chips supply - demand was relatively loose, and the processing fee lacked an upward drive. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [150]. Propylene - The propylene inventory was high, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to go short on rallies, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [151][153]. Plastic PP - The PE capacity utilization rate was stable, and the PP production increased. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts, pay attention to the pressure at recent high points, conduct long L2605 and short PP2605 arbitrage, and wait and see for options [154][155][156]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price was weak due to the large supply and weak demand. It is recommended that the price will be in a weak trend, wait and see for arbitrage and options [159][160]. PVC - The PVC price continued to decline due to the increase in supply and weak demand. It is recommended that the price will have difficulty in rebounding, wait and see for arbitrage and options [162][163][164]. Soda Ash - The soda ash supply increased and the demand decreased, and the price was weakening. It is recommended that the price will continue to be weak in the medium - long term, pay attention to the opportunity of short soda ash and long glass spread in the 05 contract, and wait and see for options [165][166][167]. Glass - The glass price oscillated downward due to the weak fundamental situation. It is recommended that the price will be in a weak trend, pay attention to the strategy opportunity of short soda ash and long glass in the 05 contract, conduct reverse arbitrage of 1 - 5 contracts, and wait and see for options [168][169][170]. Methanol - The methanol price continued to decline. It is recommended to go short on the 01 contract in the short term, pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [172][173]. Urea - The urea trading volume increased, but the futures price continued to decline. It is recommended that the price will be weakly volatile in the short - and medium - term, and pay attention to policy changes [174][175]. Pulp - The pulp spot price was strong, but the demand was mainly rigid. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try short positions based on the previous high, wait and see for arbitrage and options [176][178][179]. Logs - The log fundamentals were weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 03 contract, gradually take profits on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [181][183]. Offset Printing Paper - The supply pressure of offset printing paper remained high, and the transmission of high pulp prices was less than expected. It is recommended to conduct short operations, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell OP2602 - C - 4100 options [184][185][187]. Natural Rubber - The Thai rubber water - cup price difference continued to weaken, and the tire production increased month - on - month. It is recommended to try short positions on the RU 05 contract, hold long positions on the NR 02 contract, hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread, and wait and see for options [188][190][191]. Butadiene Rubber - The high - cis butadiene rubber production decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is recommended to hold long positions on the BR 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread, and wait and see for options [192][193][195].