2025年12月12日：期货市场交易指引-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: The stock index is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade in a range [1] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to sell on rallies [1] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper suggests holding a small long position; aluminum recommends reducing long positions; nickel advises waiting and seeing or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver suggests holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to be strongly volatile [1] - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are all for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strongly volatile; PTA is expected to rise in a volatile manner; apples are expected to be strongly volatile; jujubes are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: For live pigs, short - term contracts are recommended to sell on rallies, and long - term contracts should be bullish with caution; eggs' price increase is limited; for corn, be cautious about chasing high in the short term, and grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal is for range trading; for oils and fats, the previously placed short positions can gradually take profits and exit [1] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different futures varieties have different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [1][5][7] - For most varieties, the market is in a state of volatility, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to the specific situation of each variety, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling on rallies. 3. Summary of Each Industry Macro Finance - Stock Index: The central economic work conference focuses on promoting economic growth and stabilizing the real estate market. The market rotation is fast, and the stock index may trade in a range, but it is bullish in the medium - to - long term [5] - Government Bonds: Regulatory policies and the entry of insurance funds are factors. The market's ability to break out of the current range depends on the end - of - year allocation and important meetings. The bond yields are at an attractive level, and government bonds are expected to trade in a range [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal and Coke: The coal market is under pressure with rising port inventories and falling prices. However, there are signs of low - level repair, and it is recommended for range trading [7] - Rebar: The demand is weakening, and steel mills are reducing production. The price is at a relatively low - level valuation, and it is expected to trade in a range with short - term trading as the main strategy [7] - Glass: The supply is relatively stable, but the demand is weakening. The social inventory pressure is large, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The weak US labor market data and various industry factors support copper prices, but the downstream demand is shrinking. It is recommended to hold a small long position cautiously [10] - Aluminum: The bauxite price is under pressure, the production capacity is changing, and the demand is entering the off - season. The Fed's meeting is positive, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - Nickel: The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty, and the medium - to - long - term supply is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see or sell on rallies [15] - Tin: The tin ore supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply and demand. It is recommended for range trading [16] - Silver and Gold: Fed officials' dovish statements increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, and precious metals are supported. Silver suggests holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; gold is for range trading [17] - Lithium Carbonate: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it is expected to be strongly volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of mines [19] Energy Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and it is expected to continue to trade at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [21] - Caustic Soda: The inventory is high, and the demand from the main downstream is large. The production capacity changes offset each other. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - Styrene: The overseas blending logic is difficult to change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [23] - Rubber: The raw material price may be strong, but the overseas peak - production season, rising inventory, and off - season demand limit the upside. It is recommended for range trading [23] - Urea: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the demand from compound fertilizers and other industries is increasing. The inventory is in a complex state, and it is recommended for range trading [25] - Methanol: The supply is recovering, the demand from the olefin industry is slightly increasing, and the traditional demand is weak. The port inventory pressure is rising, and it is expected to trade weakly [26] - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is high, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is rising. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to various factors [27] - Soda Ash: The supply is in excess, the cost is rising, and the alkali plants are reluctant to lower prices. It is recommended to wait and see [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, but the domestic sales are fast, and the yarn price is strong, driving the cotton price to rebound. It is expected to be strongly volatile [30] - PTA: Geopolitical factors drive up the crude oil price, and the PTA supply - demand is in a state of destocking. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner [31] - Apples: The inventory apples are sold on - demand, and the trading atmosphere in different regions is different. It is expected to be strongly volatile [32] - Jujubes: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%, and the acquisition enthusiasm of enterprises is average. It is expected to be weakly volatile [32] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand increase is not obvious. The medium - to - long - term supply is still high, and the price in the first half of next year is under pressure. It is recommended to sell short - term contracts on rallies and be bullish on long - term contracts with caution [34] - Eggs: The short - term supply is still sufficient, and the price is supported. The medium - term supply growth slows down, and the long - term capacity reduction takes time. It is recommended to hedge on rallies in the short term [36] - Corn: The short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and the long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high in the short term and hedge on rallies [36] - Soybean Meal: The domestic near - and far - month contracts have different trends. It is recommended for range trading, being bullish on near - month contracts and bearish on far - month contracts at appropriate times. Spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [37] - Oils and Fats: The short - term trends of the three major oils and fats are different. Bean and palm oils are under pressure, and rapeseed oil's rebound is limited. It is recommended to take profits on previously placed short positions [44]