中原期货晨会纪要-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized continuing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with 8 key tasks proposed, including stabilizing the real - estate market and resolving local government debt risks [6]. - The World Bank raised its forecast for China's economic growth rate in 2025 to 4.9%, attributing it to the government's policies and diversified export markets [7]. - The storage chip industry is facing a supply - demand imbalance, with DRAM supply shortages expected to last until Q1 2027 [8]. - In 2026, more real - estate policies are expected to boost demand, but the market is still expected to decline slightly and remain divided [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On December 12, 2025, among chemical products, coke, natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and ethylene glycol saw price increases, while others like coking coal, plastic, and PTA decreased [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - The Central Economic Work Conference laid out the economic work for next year, focusing on fiscal and monetary policies, consumption, investment, and various industries [6]. - Mexico will impose tariffs on some products from China and other Asian countries starting next year, and China has launched a trade - investment barrier investigation [6]. - Regarding the EU's anti - subsidy case on Chinese electric vehicles, China welcomes price - commitment consultations but opposes parallel individual consultations [7]. - The World Bank raised China's 2025 economic growth forecast to 4.9% [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to promote the innovation and development of the retail industry [7]. - In November, China's auto production and sales increased, with new - energy vehicles showing significant growth [7]. - The real - estate market is expected to see more policies in 2026, with a projected 6.2% decline in new - home sales [8]. - The storage chip industry is facing a supply - demand imbalance [8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures are likely to remain weak in the short term due to a weak supply - demand situation [10]. - Sugar prices are expected to be weak due to sufficient supply and low demand [10]. - Corn futures may oscillate in a range, restricted by weak spot prices and supply pressure [10]. - The pig futures market shows a contradiction between weak reality and improved expectations, and it's advisable to wait and see [10]. - Egg prices are expected to oscillate, with a suggestion to hold inter - month reverse spreads [10][12]. - Cotton prices are likely to oscillate, affected by both supply and demand factors [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea futures may continue to oscillate weakly, with attention on support levels and downstream demand [12]. - Caustic soda futures should be treated with a bearish view due to a weak supply - demand pattern [12]. - Coking coal and coke are under pressure and are expected to decline [13]. - Log futures should be treated with a bearish view after breaking through the support level [13]. - Pulp futures may remain strong in the short term, but beware of demand - side risks [13]. - Double - offset paper futures can be considered for light - position long positions near the support level [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum prices are volatile at high levels, and attention should be paid to macro - risks [15]. - Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts [15]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to decline weakly in the short term, with attention on support levels [15]. - Ferroalloys' prices follow the weak trend of the black - series, with a wait - and - see attitude for new drivers [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate futures have broken through resistance, but beware of high - level corrections [16]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - On December 11, A - share indices declined, and investors are advised to focus on inter - variety arbitrage and volatility strategies [16]. - The market is waiting for information from the Central Economic Work Conference to find investment opportunities for next year [17]. - In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate, and further upward momentum may be gathered after consolidation [18].