20251212申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose by over 2% overnight, inspired by the Fed's unexpected actions. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month-on-month, it generally continued to grow at a high rate. The supply disruption of mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply-demand expectation towards a deficit [2]. - The zinc price rose by nearly 3% overnight, also inspired by the Fed's unexpected actions. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The overall supply-demand difference of zinc is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non-ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Overnight copper price rose by over 2%, influenced by the Fed's actions. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Smelting output decreased month - on - month but still shows high - growth overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Mine supply disruptions turn the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 92,180 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 11,834 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 24.76 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 164,975 tons, and the daily change was - 700 tons [2]. Zinc - Overnight zinc price rose by nearly 3%, affected by the Fed's actions. Zinc concentrate processing fees have dropped, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not significant, but the market sentiment of non - ferrous metals should be noted [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,970 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,198 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 172.81 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 59,800 tons, and the daily change was 1,650 tons [2]. Other Metals - For aluminum, the previous domestic futures closing price was 21,875 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,895 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 26.68 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 520,800 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2]. - For nickel, the previous domestic futures closing price was 115,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,530 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,610 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 186.96 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,092 tons, and the daily change was 564 tons [2]. - For lead, the previous domestic futures closing price was 17,170 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 80 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,984 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 48.25 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 235,550 tons, and the daily change was - 1,375 tons [2]. - For tin, the previous domestic futures closing price was 318,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,180 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 41,880 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 22.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,655 tons, and the daily change was 605 tons [2].