Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Overseas markets focus on the Fed's policy direction, and the expectation of finalizing the next Fed chair is rising. The market anticipates that the new chair may push for more aggressive rate cuts, but there is uncertainty about the implementation of rate cuts. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. Domestically, the economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid. The Politburo meeting has set a positive tone, emphasizing the expansion of domestic demand [1]. - The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying decision are interpreted as "not QE but similar to QE", which is negative for the US dollar index. The central economic work conference aims to keep the RMB exchange rate stable, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to show a two - way fluctuation in the long - term [2]. - The central economic work conference is expected to boost market sentiment, and the stock index is expected to be strong in the short - term, with large - cap stock indexes outperforming [4]. - The bond market has room for growth in the medium - term, and it is recommended to hold long - term positions [5]. - The price of the container shipping European line is expected to be supported before the Spring Festival, but there are both long and short factors in the market, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [6]. - Precious metals prices are expected to rise in the medium - to long - term, driven by factors such as central bank gold purchases and investment demand. Platinum is recommended to be bought on dips, and palladium is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [10]. - The copper price is supported by the Fed's rate cut, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term; the alumina market is expected to be weak; and the cast aluminum alloy market is expected to fluctuate strongly [14]. - The zinc market is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term, and the tin market is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term. The lead market is expected to fluctuate [16][17]. - The steel product market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption. The iron ore price is expected to have limited downward space, and the coking coal and coke market is under pressure in the short - term [19][23]. - The ferroalloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the possibility of price rebounds due to production cuts [25]. - The oil price is affected by geopolitical tensions and fundamentals, and the short - term price is mainly affected by the US - Venezuela situation. The LPG market is driven down by multiple factors, and the PX - PTA market has no obvious driving force in the short - term [28][30]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The methanol market is expected to be weak, and the PP market is not recommended to be shorted further at the current valuation [34][39]. - The PE market is expected to maintain a bottom - level shock in the short - term, and the pure benzene - styrene market is expected to be volatile. The fuel oil market is recommended to be observed, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is also recommended to be observed [42][46]. - The rubber market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the urea market is expected to fluctuate. The soda ash market is expected to be under pressure, and the glass market is affected by cold - repair expectations [51][54][55]. - The caustic soda market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the pulp and offset paper markets are recommended to be observed. The log market is not recommended to be shorted at the current price, and the propylene market is expected to be weak [57][59][61]. - The oilseed market is expected to continue the positive spread trend, and the oil market is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range. The cotton market is recommended to be long on dips, and the sugar market is expected to be weak. The apple market is expected to be strong, and the jujube market is expected to have limited downward space [62][63][65]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The central economic work conference emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, stabilizing the real estate market, and resolving local government debt risks. Overseas, the Fed's policy direction and the US economic data affect market expectations [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying decision are negative for the US dollar index. The central economic work conference aims to keep the RMB exchange rate stable, and the RMB is expected to appreciate in the short - term due to seasonal factors [2]. - Stock Index: The central economic work conference is expected to boost market sentiment, and large - cap stock indexes are expected to outperform [4]. - Treasury Bond: The bond market has room for growth in the medium - term, and it is recommended to hold long - term positions [5]. - Container Shipping European Line: The price is expected to be supported before the Spring Festival, but there are both long and short factors in the market, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum & Palladium: The prices of platinum and palladium rose due to the Fed's rate cut. In the medium - to long - term, the prices are expected to be boosted by factors such as central bank gold purchases and investment demand. Platinum is recommended to be bought on dips, and palladium is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [9][10]. - Gold & Silver: The prices of gold and silver rose. Silver is in an easy - to - rise and difficult - to - fall pattern. In the short - term, gold is expected to be strong and volatile, and silver is recommended to be sold on rallies. In the medium - to long - term, both are expected to rise [10][12]. - Copper: The copper price is supported by the Fed's rate cut, and it is recommended to hold long positions [13]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term; the alumina market is expected to be weak; and the cast aluminum alloy market is expected to fluctuate strongly [14]. - Zinc: The zinc market is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [16]. - Tin: The tin market is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term [17]. - Lead: The lead market is expected to fluctuate [17]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel product market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [18][19]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to have limited downward space, and it is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals [19][20]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The coking coal and coke market is under pressure in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold short positions in coking coal and avoid shorting coke blindly [23]. - Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese: The ferroalloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the possibility of price rebounds due to production cuts [25]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The oil price is affected by geopolitical tensions and fundamentals, and the short - term price is mainly affected by the US - Venezuela situation [27][28]. - LPG: The LPG market is driven down by multiple factors, including the decline in oil prices, weakening fundamentals, and increased warehouse receipts [29][30]. - PTA - PX: The PX - PTA market has no obvious driving force in the short - term, and it is expected to follow the commodity sentiment and cost - side fluctuations [30][33]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The ethylene glycol market is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [33][34]. - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to hold short - call options and 1 - 5 reverse spreads [36]. - PP: The PP market is not recommended to be shorted further at the current valuation, and attention should be paid to the PDH device operation and the spot market [38][39]. - PE: The PE market is expected to maintain a bottom - level shock in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the spot market and basis changes [40][42]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: The pure benzene - styrene market is expected to be volatile, with pure benzene showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern and styrene showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern [42][44]. - Fuel Oil: The fuel oil market is recommended to be observed, with the high - sulfur fuel oil market showing stable supply and weak demand, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market having improved fundamentals [45][46]. - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the synthetic rubber is relatively strong. It is recommended to observe the natural rubber - synthetic rubber spread [51][52]. - Urea: The urea market is expected to fluctuate, with high supply and export policy regulation affecting the price [52][53]. - Soda Ash & Glass: The soda ash market is expected to be under pressure due to over - supply expectations, and the glass market is affected by cold - repair expectations [54][55]. - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda market is expected to be weak and volatile, with limited fundamental support and weakening demand [56][57]. - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp and offset paper markets are recommended to be observed, with the pulp price expected to fluctuate and the offset paper being affected by the pulp price and supply [57][58]. - Log: The log market is not recommended to be shorted at the current price, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread [59]. - Propylene: The propylene market is expected to be weak and volatile, with a loose supply - demand situation and cost - side support [60][61]. Agricultural Products - Oilseeds: The oilseed market is expected to continue the positive spread trend, with the external soybean market likely to fluctuate near the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets affected by supply and demand factors [62]. - Oils: The oil market is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range, with palm oil being weak, rapeseed oil being strong, and soybean oil being weak [63][64]. - Cotton: The cotton market is recommended to be long on dips, with the short - term domestic downstream showing resilience and the overall supply being tight [65]. - Sugar: The sugar market is expected to be weak, affected by global supply pressure [65][66]. - Apple: The apple market is expected to be strong, and the 01 contract hit a new high [67][68]. - Jujube: The jujube market is expected to have limited downward space, and attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday purchases [69].
南华期货早评-20251212
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-12 02:56