黑色金属数据日报-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Pay attention to callback pressure for single - side trading; perform rolling operations for hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive spreads or use options tools to assist in procurement and sales [8] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Investment clients should short - allocate on rallies, and industrial clients can use put options to protect spot exposures [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Temporarily wait and see [8] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices in a weak and volatile state. The decline in hot metal production triggers a phased negative feedback, and the cost support is weak. Attention should be paid to the pressure release of hot - rolled coils [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese follow the black - sector fluctuations, with insufficient driving forces. The supply is high while the demand is weak, and the price will be under pressure [3][5] - In the coking coal and coke market, the second round of coke price cuts has started, and the coking coal auction is weak. Affected by weak reality and weak expectations, the prices continue to hit new lows [6] - The iron ore price has fallen after oscillating at the upper edge of the range. With the decline in hot metal production, the inventory will continue to accumulate, and short positions can be held [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On December 11, the closing prices of far - month contracts for RB2610, HC2610, I2609, J2605, and JM2609 were 3103.00 yuan/ton, 3248.00 yuan/ton, 733.00 yuan/ton, 1657.00 yuan/ton, and 1112.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 36.00 yuan, - 37.00 yuan, - 9.50 yuan, - 49.50 yuan, and - 49.00 yuan, and percentage changes of - 1.15%, - 1.13%, - 1.28%, - 2.90%, and - 4.22% respectively [1] - The closing prices of near - month contracts (main contracts) for RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2601, and JM2605 were 3069.00 yuan/ton, 3238.00 yuan/ton, 757.00 yuan/ton, 1491.50 yuan/ton, and 1035.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 41.00 yuan, - 39.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, - 45.50 yuan, and - 47.50 yuan, and percentage changes of - 1.32%, - 1.19%, - 1.30%, - 2.96%, and - 4.39% respectively [1] - The cross - month spreads for RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, I2605 - 2609, J2601 - 2605, and JM2605 - 2609 were - 34.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, 24.00 yuan/ton, - 165.50 yuan/ton, and - 77.00 yuan/ton respectively on December 11 [1] - The spreads, ratios, and profits of main contracts on December 11: the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 169.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.05, the coking coal - coke ratio was 1.44, the rebar disk profit was 16.45 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 114.95 yuan/ton [1] Spot Market - On December 11, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3140.00 yuan/ton, 3480.00 yuan/ton, 2940.00 yuan/ton, and 105.00 respectively, with changes of - 50.00 yuan, - 60.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, - 20.00 yuan, and - 1.40 respectively [1] - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB were 3240.00 yuan/ton, 3270.00 yuan/ton, 3250.00 yuan/ton, 310.00 yuan/ton, and 789.00 yuan/ton respectively on December 11, with changes of - 50.00 yuan, - 60.00 yuan, - 70.00 yuan, - 30.00 yuan, and 2.00 yuan respectively [1] - The spot prices of some coking products on December 11: the price of a certain product was 676.00 yuan/ton, another was 726.00 yuan/ton, the coal price was 1170.00 yuan/ton, the coking coal at Ganqimao Port (out - of - warehouse) was 1580.00 yuan/ton, and the Qingdao Port PB was 790.00 yuan/ton, with changes of 7.00 yuan, 7.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 3.00 yuan respectively [1] - The basis for HC main contract, RB main contract, I main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract on December 11 was 2.00 yuan/ton, 181.00 yuan/ton, 22.00 yuan/ton, 242.42 yuan/ton, and 165.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 6.00 yuan, - 2.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 35.50 yuan, and 35.00 yuan respectively [1]