海通证券晨报-20251212

Macro Research - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but internal divisions have increased, indicating a more cautious approach to future rate cuts. The Fed is expected to initiate 2-3 more rate cuts in 2026 due to structural changes in the labor market and the upcoming change in Fed leadership [1][2][3]. - The Fed has become more optimistic about the U.S. economy and inflation, revising GDP growth forecasts upward for 2025-2028 and lowering unemployment rate predictions for 2027. Additionally, the Fed has started a technical expansion of its balance sheet, purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds [2][3]. Financial Engineering Research - Domestic asset BL Strategy 1 yielded a November return of 0.09% and a total return of 4.04% for 2025. BL Strategy 2 had a November return of 0.13% and a total return of 3.82%. The risk parity strategy returned -0.01% in November with a total return of 3.68%, while the macro factor-based asset allocation strategy returned 0.02% in November and 4.25% for the year [1][6][7]. - The correlation between major asset classes indicates a negative correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index and the total wealth index of government bonds, suggesting diversification benefits [6]. Industry Insights - The report highlights the ongoing structural changes in the labor market due to immigration policies and AI replacement, which may necessitate further rate cuts. The upcoming change in Fed leadership could also influence the pace of rate cuts, with potential political factors playing a significant role [3][4][14]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to decline initially before rising again, with a mid-year low projected between 3.5% and 3.8%. The stock market, particularly sectors sensitive to interest rates, is expected to remain supported [4][14]. Company Analysis - The report on PICC Property & Casualty indicates that recent personnel changes will not affect the company's long-term strategic stability. The company is expected to see continuous improvement in underwriting profitability, with EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 set at 2.14, 2.40, and 2.55 respectively [15][16]. - The company is actively responding to regulatory changes in non-auto insurance and expanding its overseas business, particularly in the Belt and Road Initiative projects, which is expected to contribute to premium growth [16].