西南期货早间评论-20251212

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, and different futures varieties have different trends and investment strategies [7] - For bonds, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will still face some pressure, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [7][8] - For stocks, it is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, they are expected to continue the upward trend, and investors can wait and see for now to look for long - entry opportunities [12][13] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, the medium - term price weakness may be difficult to change, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] - For coking coal and coke, the weakness has not been reversed, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low levels [17] - For ferroalloys, after a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [20] - For crude oil, the trend is uncertain, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [22][23] - For fuel oil, the cost - end crude oil price dominates, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [25][26] - For polyolefins, they should be temporarily observed [28] - For synthetic rubber, it will run in a volatile manner [30] - For natural rubber, investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [32] - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [34] - For urea, the downward space is limited [36] - For PX, it may be adjusted in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and macro - policy changes [38] - For PTA, it may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39] - For ethylene glycol, it may be under pressure in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] - For staple fiber, it may follow the cost to run in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost to run in a volatile manner, and investors should pay attention to controlling risks [43] - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption and the resumption progress of the mine end [45] - For copper, it will run strongly [47] - For aluminum, it will be adjusted in a volatile manner [50] - For zinc, investors should be cautious about chasing up [52] - For lead, it will run within a range [54] - For tin, it is expected to run strongly in a volatile manner [56] - For nickel, it will run in a volatile manner [57] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [59] - For palm oil, investors can consider going long on pullbacks [61] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider short - term long positions in the near - term contracts and pay attention to setting stop - losses [64] - For cotton, it is recommended to wait and see [68] - For sugar, it will run in a volatile manner [72] - For apples, the price is expected to run strongly [74] - For live pigs, it is recommended to wait and see [75] - For eggs, it is recommended to wait and see for now [79] - For corn and starch, corn starch may follow the corn market, and investors should wait for the release of supply pressure after transportation recovers [82] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 118.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal was 62.2 billion yuan on that day [5] - Due to the relatively low Treasury bond yield, the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, the continuous rise of core inflation, and the increase in market risk preference, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will still face some pressure, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [7][8] Stock Indexes - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The domestic sales of new energy vehicles in November increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10] - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and corporate profit growth is at a low level, the domestic asset valuation is low, and there is room for valuation repair. The market sentiment has heated up, and it is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [10][11] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver closed up. The complex global trade and financial environment, central banks' gold - buying behavior, and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are all beneficial to precious metals, which are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now to look for long - entry opportunities [12][13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply side has over - capacity, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The price weakness may be difficult to change. The trend of hot - rolled coil is similar to that of rebar, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. Since October, the daily output of molten iron has declined, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, the port inventory has continued to rise, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Technically, the rebound may encounter resistance, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. For coking coal, the impact of safety inspections on production is weakening, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. For coke, the first round of price cuts for spot purchases has been implemented, the supply is stable, and the demand is expected to weaken. Technically, the weakness has not been reversed, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low levels [17] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon closed down. The supply of manganese ore has increased slightly, the cost of ferroalloys has risen, the output of ferroalloys has continued to decline from high levels, the demand is weak, and the overall over - supply situation has eased. After a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [19][20] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. The CFTC data shows that the short - selling sentiment of funds has weakened. The situation of the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers and the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations has made the crude oil trend highly uncertain. The main contract should be temporarily observed [21][22][23] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and hit a new low for the year. The Asian fuel oil spot delivery period is unstable, which is beneficial to the fuel oil price. The cost - end crude oil price dominates, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [24][25][26] Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the quotes in the Hangzhou PP market showed mixed results. The price of LLDPE in the Yuyao market fell. The demand for polypropylene products has shown a stable and slightly rising trend under the drive of policies and seasonal demand. Polyolefins should be temporarily observed [27][28] Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber closed up. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the supply - demand pattern is in a weak balance. The cost of butadiene rubber is low, and the profit has improved significantly. The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand from tire enterprises has recovered. It will run in a volatile manner [29][30] Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber showed mixed results. It is expected that the short - term natural rubber market will show a range - bound consolidation. The overseas supply has recovered, the domestic supply is tight, the demand from tire enterprises has recovered, and the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation trend. Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [31][32] PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC closed down. The current oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited, and it is necessary to wait for the improvement of the fundamentals. Pay attention to the export and supply reduction after the festival. Investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [33][34] Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea closed down. It is expected that the urea market will rise slightly in a narrow range this week. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from downstream products has changed differently, and the profit has improved. The downward space is limited [35][36] PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX closed up. The PXN spread is relatively strong in the short term, the start - up rate is stable, the import has decreased, the spot liquidity is tight, and the cost - end crude oil has corrected. It may be adjusted in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and macro - policy changes [37][38] PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA closed up. The supply is basically stable, the demand has decreased slightly, the processing fee has continued to decline, and the inventory is at a low level. The cost - end crude oil oscillates, and the support from the raw material PX price is limited. It may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol closed down. The overall start - up rate has decreased, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, the pre - arrival volume at the port has increased, and the demand support has weakened. It may be under pressure in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40][41] Staple Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of staple fiber closed down. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has not changed much, and the cost - driving force is limited. It may follow the cost to run in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips closed down. The processing fee has been adjusted. The supply load has decreased, the downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the export has rebounded slightly. The main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to run in a volatile manner, and investors should pay attention to controlling risks [43] Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed up. The production of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, the consumption in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, the inventory has gradually decreased, and investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption and the resumption progress of the mine end [44][45] Copper - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed up. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and the dollar index fell. The growth of copper concentrate is weak, the supply of electrolytic copper is expected to tighten, and the consumption is weak. The inventory has decreased. Driven by the dovish interest - rate policy and tight inventory in non - US regions, the copper price will run strongly [46][47] Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up, and the main contract of alumina closed down. The supply of alumina is in excess, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has limited room for growth, the consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has remained flat. The alumina price is suppressed by the oversupply, and the aluminum price will be adjusted in a volatile manner [48][49][50] Zinc - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed up. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has fallen rapidly, the production of refined zinc has decreased, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the inventory has decreased. Driven by the liquidity released by the Federal Reserve, the zinc price has risen, and investors should be cautious about chasing up [51][52] Lead - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed down. The processing fee of lead concentrate has continued to fall, the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises may be affected, the production of recycled lead may decrease slightly, the downstream procurement rhythm has slowed down, and the inventory has decreased. The lead price has poor rebound momentum and will run within a range [53][54] Tin - On the previous trading day, the main contract of tin closed up. The supply of tin ore is tight, the production resumption progress in Wa State is slow, the smelting cost is high, the supply of imports is uncertain, and the overall supply is tight. The demand has certain resilience. The inventory of refined tin has decreased, and it is expected to run strongly in a volatile manner [55][56] Nickel - On the previous trading day, the main contract of nickel closed down. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and the macro - sentiment may continue to improve. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel ore may be affected, the downstream nickel - iron plants are in losses, and the consumption is not optimistic. The refined nickel inventory is at a relatively high level, and it will run in a volatile manner [57] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the main contract of soybean meal remained flat, and the main contract of soybean oil closed up. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower than last year, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a high level, the inventory of soybean meal and soybean oil has decreased, the consumption of soybean oil has improved slightly, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to grow moderately. The cost support for soybean products is good, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [58][59] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed slightly up, supported by the rise of Dalian soybean oil futures. The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased to a six - and - a - half - year high, the export has decreased, the domestic palm oil import has increased, and the inventory is at the middle level in the past seven years. Palm oil may consider going long on pullbacks [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The price of Canadian rapeseed closed up, affected by the rise of related varieties and the decline of US soybean oil and crude oil. The global and Canadian rapeseed production and inventory are expected to change. The domestic import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. In the near - term contracts, investors can consider short - term long positions and pay attention to setting stop - losses [62][63][64] Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton oscillated up, and overnight overseas cotton fell slightly. The US cotton export sales and production and inventory estimates have changed. The global cotton production and inventory estimates have also changed. The domestic textile and clothing export has shown a stable performance, the cotton planting area and output have increased, and the new cotton picking is almost over. It is recommended to wait and see [65][66][68] Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zheng sugar rebounded with a reduction in positions, and overnight overseas raw sugar fell. The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have started crushing has decreased, the sugar production in India has increased, the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has increased, and the sugar export in Brazil has decreased slightly but is still large. The domestic market will face the dual pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar, and the 01 contract has certain support. It will run in a volatile manner [69][70][72] Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The inventory in apple cold storage has decreased, the new - season apple production has decreased, and the quality has declined. The price is expected to run strongly [73][74] Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs remained flat. The pig price in the northern region was stable with a slight increase, and that in the southern region showed mixed results. The supply of pigs has increased slightly, the consumption in the southwest region has improved slightly, and the inventory of frozen products has increased slightly. In the short term, pay attention to the slaughter volume of farms and the consumption change after the temperature drops. It is recommended to wait and see [74][75] Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas remained flat. The cost of eggs has increased, and the breeding profit is low. The inventory of laying hens