集运日报：现货运价企稳，盘面宽幅震荡，符合日报预期，关注春节前出货行情，运价并无明显波动。-20251212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot freight rates have stabilized, and the market is filled with optimistic sentiment. Amid the tug - of - war between bulls and bears, the market shows wide - range fluctuations. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2] - The issue of Sino - US tariffs has a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; SCFIS (US West route) was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced a price of 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period [1] - On December 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period [1] - On December 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI US West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [1] Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in the production and operation of Chinese enterprises [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November composite PMI was 52.4, slightly lower than the October figure of 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The service sector and manufacturing sector showed a divergence, with the preliminary value of the service sector PMI at 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The Eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [1] - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [2] Trading Strategy - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - takers who had been advised to try long positions with a light position in the main contract are now advised to take all profits, not to add positions, not to hold losing positions, and to set stop - losses. The logic of freight rate trends still returns to traditional seasonality and when shipping routes in the Red Sea will resume. Currently, spot prices have slightly decreased [2] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [2] - Long - term strategy: It has been advised to take profits when the contracts reach high points, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent situation [2] Contract Information - On December 11, the main contract 2602 closed at 1689.0, up 2.04%, with a trading volume of 18,700 lots and an open interest of 31,600 lots, an increase of 241 lots from the previous day [2] - The price limit for the 2508 - 2606 contracts has been adjusted to 18% [2] - The company's margin for the 2508 - 2606 contracts has been adjusted to 28% [2] - The intraday opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts is 100 lots [2] Geopolitical Events - On December 9 local time, the UN Secretary - General's spokesman expressed "deep shock and serious concern" over the Yemeni Houthi rebels' continued arbitrary detention of a large number of international agency personnel and strongly condemned their practice of handing over UN staff to a special criminal court. He called on the Houthi rebels to withdraw the relevant hand - over decision and immediately release all detained UN, non - governmental organization, and diplomatic personnel [3] - On December 9, Hamas senior official Hussam Badran stated that any discussion about the second - stage cease - fire in Gaza must be based on the negotiation mediators, the US, and all relevant parties pressuring Israel to ensure the full implementation of all terms of the first - stage agreement. He refuted the Israeli military's claim that the "yellow line" is the "new border" in the Gaza Strip, saying that such remarks exposed Israel's non - compliance with the cease - fire agreement. As long as Israel continues to violate the agreement, the second - stage cease - fire in Gaza cannot be launched [3]