房地产行业第49周周报：新房二手房成交同比降幅扩大，多地出台购房补贴政策-20251212

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The current real estate market remains sluggish, with ongoing declines in housing prices and increasing market concerns. However, there is optimism for policy optimization in the future, potentially marking the beginning of a new real estate cycle in 2026 [8] - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou [8] 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [8] 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios and operational models, such as China Resources and Swire Properties [8] Summary by Sections 1. New and Second-hand Housing Market Tracking - New housing transaction area decreased by 11.4% month-on-month and 45.7% year-on-year, with a total of 208.9 million square meters sold in 40 cities [7][19] - Second-hand housing transaction area also saw a decline of 5.1% month-on-month and 45.9% year-on-year, totaling 157.5 million square meters in 18 cities [7][50] - New housing inventory area decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 10.3% year-on-year, with a total inventory of 11,369 million square meters [7][43] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities was 2,377.1 million square meters, up 14.8% month-on-month but down 26.7% year-on-year, with a total transaction value of 865.7 billion yuan [7][64] - The average land price was 3,641.9 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 58.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [7][64] - The land premium rate was 3.8%, up 2.5 percentage points month-on-month but down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [7][64] 3. Policy Overview - Recent government policies emphasize stabilizing the real estate market, with various local governments introducing housing purchase subsidy policies to support homebuyers [3] - Notable policies include subsidies for newlywed families and families with multiple children in cities like Nanning and Changzhou [3] 4. Company Performance and Bond Issuance - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 142.4 billion yuan, down 26.9% month-on-month and 31.0% year-on-year [7][54] - The total repayment amount was 105.2 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 55.7% month-on-month and 77.5% year-on-year [7][54]