固定收益点评：积极的政策等待落地

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference has a significant impact on economic trends and capital market movements, with a more optimistic outlook for the economy compared to last year, emphasizing the need for a good start in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][8] - The overall policy tone for the coming year is set to be "steady progress," focusing on balancing domestic economic work with international trade challenges and ensuring development and security [1][8] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a greater emphasis on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery, indicating potential for increased easing measures to address low inflation pressures [2][9] - The conference highlighted the need for flexible and efficient use of various policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, which may enhance market expectations for easing in the short term [2][9] Group 3: Fiscal Policy - The conference calls for a continuation of proactive fiscal policies, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, with a focus on optimizing expenditure structures and addressing local fiscal difficulties [3][10] - The emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market has shifted towards demand-side measures, encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing, reflecting a targeted approach to address current market weaknesses [3][10] Group 4: Local Government Debt - The conference stresses the importance of orderly risk mitigation for local government debt, urging proactive debt resolution and strict control over new hidden debts [4][11] - There is a continued focus on enhancing consumer spending to boost domestic demand, with policies aimed at increasing income for urban and rural residents [4][11] Group 5: Market Confidence and Policy Implementation - The positive policy statements from the conference are expected to improve market confidence and stabilize expectations, with the effectiveness of these policies dependent on their implementation and scale [5][12] - Short-term expectations for monetary easing may alleviate market adjustment pressures, but the trajectory of interest rates will largely depend on fiscal efforts to stimulate social financing growth [5][12]