PVC开工小幅下降，库存压力仍存

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Cautiously bearish; Inter - period - Wait - and - see; Inter - variety - None [4] - Caustic soda: Unilateral - Sideways; Inter - period - Wait - and - see; Inter - variety - None [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC: Supply - demand is weak, and cost support is prominent. Pay attention to subsequent device maintenance and macro - policy dynamics [3] - Caustic soda: Overall supply - demand is weak. Focus on the trend of liquid chlorine prices and caustic soda device dynamics [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: PVC main contract closing price is 4276 yuan/ton (- 52); East China basis is 44 yuan/ton (+ 22); South China basis is 24 yuan/ton (+ 2) [1] - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method quotation is 4320 yuan/ton (- 30); South China calcium carbide method quotation is 4300 yuan/ton (- 50) [1] - Upstream production profit: Semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+ 0); Calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+ 0); Calcium carbide profit is 0 yuan/ton (+ 0); PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 1019 yuan/ton (- 139); PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 472 yuan/ton (- 8); PVC export profit is 2.5 US dollars/ton (+ 3.8) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: PVC factory inventory is 32.6 tons (+ 0.3); PVC social inventory is 52.9 tons (+ 0.1); PVC calcium carbide method operation rate is 79.13% (- 2.96%); PVC ethylene method operation rate is 76.67% (+ 4.75%); PVC operation rate is 78.39% (- 0.62%) [1] - Downstream order situation: Production enterprise pre - sales volume is 69.8 tons (+ 2.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: SH main contract closing price is 2113 yuan/ton (- 42); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis is 106 yuan/ton (+ 42) [1] - Spot price: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quotation is 710 yuan/ton (+ 0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quotation is 1180 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 513.8 yuan/ton (+ 0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) is - 608.21 yuan/ton (+ 0.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) is 237.99 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 45.71 tons (- 4.77); Flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.45 tons (+ 0.08); Caustic soda operation rate is 86.20% (+ 0.20%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: Alumina operation rate is 86.20% (+ 0.14%); Printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 62.74% (- 1.72%); Viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.62% (- 1.67%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply - demand is weak, and cost support is prominent. Some enterprises consider production cuts due to low prices, and the operation rate has slightly decreased. The supply side is still abundant, downstream demand has different trends, inventory is at a high level, production profit is at a low level, and the export situation is not optimistic [3] Caustic Soda - Spot prices are mainly stable. Supply - side enterprise maintenance has decreased, and the operation rate has slightly increased. Demand - side consumption of caustic soda has decreased, and the price is at a low level. There is some improvement in transactions, and inventory is at a high level. Chlor - alkali costs have increased slightly, and profits are at a low level [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Inter - period: Wait - and - see; Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Sideways; Inter - period: Wait - and - see; Inter - variety: None [5]