政策不确定性增加，油脂宽幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - Policy uncertainty has increased, leading to wide - range fluctuations in the oil and fat market. Although palm oil has entered the seasonal production - reduction cycle, the November production data reached a record high. Coupled with the expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, the overall supply of oils and fats remains loose, resulting in an oscillatory adjustment of oil and fat prices [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Prices - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,642.00 yuan/ton, a change of +100 yuan or +1.17% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,036.00 yuan/ton, a change of +36.00 yuan or +0.45%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,599.00 yuan/ton, a change of +156.00 yuan or +1.65% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,670.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%, with a spot basis of P05 + 28.00, a change of -110.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,420.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.12%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 384.00, a change of -26.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850.00 yuan/ton, a change of +160.00 yuan or +1.65%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 251.00, a change of +4.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) C&F price was 515 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) C&F price was 523 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton. Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) C&F price was 1,171 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton; Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) C&F price was 1,118 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton. Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was 1,090 dollars/ton, unchanged; Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,070 dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (January shipment) was 490 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (January shipment) was 483 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (January shipment) was 482 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton. Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (January shipment) was 243 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel; US West Coast (January shipment) was 225 cents/bushel, down 8 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (January shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, down 10 cents/bushel [2] Production Data - According to SPPOMA data, from December 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 7.24% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.07%, and the production increased by 6.87%. According to the December forecast data released by CONAB, it is expected that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.1236 million tons, an increase of 5.6431 million tons or 3.3% year - on - year; the sown area will reach 48.9356 million hectares, an increase of 1.5895 million hectares or 3.4% year - on - year; the yield per unit will be 3.62 tons/hectare, a decrease of 2.32 kilograms/hectare or 0.1% year - on - year [2]