甲醇日报：卸港延后，港口库存再度快速下降-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port inventory is rapidly decreasing due to delayed unloading. The overall arrival pressure in December remains high, but the unloading pressure is postponed. The impact of Iranian winter maintenance on future arrivals needs time to be reflected, and the loading volume from Iran should be continuously monitored. Attention should be paid to when the maintenance plan of Ningbo Fude MTO is implemented. The continuous decline in coking coal and thermal coal prices is dragging down the coal chemical industry. In the inland area, coal - based methanol production is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The resumption of Yangmei MTO and the low - load operation of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong are boosting inland demand [3] - For trading strategies, there is no recommendation for single - sided trading. For the inter - period strategy, the spread between MA2605 - MA2609 should be widened when it is low. For the inter - variety strategy, the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 should be narrowed when it is high [3] Summaries According to the Catalog 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The content includes figures showing the methanol basis in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of spot - main futures in different regions, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts such as methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [6][20] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - The content presents figures related to the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25] 3. Methanol Start - up, Inventory - Figures show the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated ones) [32][40] 4. Regional Price Differences - The content includes figures of price differences between different regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [36][44] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [48][57]