部分俄油买家恢复采购，油价下行压力加大

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - The short - term trend of oil prices is weakly volatile, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium term [3] Group 2: Core View - As more non - sanctioning entities emerge and the discount of Russian oil widens, some buyers who previously suspended Russian oil purchases have resumed buying, which is negative for oil prices because increased purchases of sanctioned oil will reduce the quantity of compliant oil purchases, slow down the increase in Russian floating storage, and lower the possibility of upstream production cuts [2] Group 3: Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for January 2026 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 63 cents to $58.25 per barrel, a decrease of 1.07%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for February delivery fell 55 cents to $61.94 per barrel, a decrease of 0.88%. The main SC crude oil contract fell 0.86% to 441 yuan per barrel [1] - OPEC stated in its monthly report that OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November as eight member countries continued their planned production increases. OPEC maintained its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, indicating that the global economy remains on a solid track. OPEC+ crude oil production in November was 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels per day compared to October. It is expected that the average demand for OPEC+ crude oil in the first quarter of 2026 will be 42.6 million barrels per day, and the annual average demand will reach 43 million barrels per day [1] - Ukraine attacked the Filanovsky oil field of Russia's Lukoil in the Caspian Sea, expanding its strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Ukrainian drones have hit the Filanovsky platform at least four times, causing more than 20 production wells to stop production. The Filanovsky oil field has a designed annual capacity of 6 million tons, equivalent to about 120,000 barrels per day [1] - The US military intercepted and seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, escalating tensions between the two countries, which may make it more difficult for Venezuela to export oil [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the US believes in the energy truce issue after multiple negotiations with Russia. Turkey is formulating the plan, and Ukraine is ready to support it [1] - The energy minister of Kazakhstan said that the country will adjust its 2026 oil production plan due to three major overhauls [1] Group 4: Risk Factors - Downside risks include a peace negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and macro - black swan events [4] - Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]