市场需求逐步好转，等待马士基1月份开价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market demand is gradually improving, and the industry is waiting for Maersk's price offer in January. The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile, while the February contract is expected to be volatile and bullish. The far - month contracts are under pressure from the potential resumption of the Suez Canal [1][9] - The delivery of container ships in 2025 is still at a high level, which may have an impact on the supply - demand relationship in the shipping market [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of December 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts for the container shipping index European line futures was 62,069.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 21,544.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1689.00, 1092.70, 1227.00, 1381.80, 1021.60, and 1653.10 respectively [8] II. Spot Price - On December 5, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1400/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was $1550/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was $2315/FEU. On December 8, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1509.10 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 960.51 points [8] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 4 - week monthly average capacity was 314,700 TEU, with capacities of 334,500, 289,600, 315,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53. In January, the monthly average capacity was 331,700 TEU. In February, the monthly average capacity was 262,900 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in December and 4 TBNs in January, all from the OA alliance. Maersk added a new sailing vessel (MAERSK EINDHOVEN, 13092 TEU) in week 51 [4] - As of December 7, 2025, 245 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.99 million TEU. Among them, 74 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.119 million TEU; 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [8] IV. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026 is relatively high. If the canal resumes, the effective capacity supply will increase, which may further suppress freight rates. Currently, CMA's FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) will fully resume operation starting from January 2026, and the FAL3 route (Europe - Asia) has started a single - trial operation [7] V. Demand and European Economy - The feedback from various surveys shows that the current cargo volume is gradually recovering. The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price may be between 1600 - 1700 points, and Maersk's freight rate is likely to continue to rise at the beginning of January. The 2026 Spring Festival is one month later than in 2025, and there is uncertainty about whether the shipping companies' contract price - holding time will also be postponed [5][7]