进口成本抬升，PDH装置利润持续承压

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [2] 2) Core View - In the context of weak crude oil prices, the LPG outer market is relatively strong. The rise in propane raw material import costs has pressured the profits of domestic PDH plants. Although the operating rate has rebounded to around 72% this week as previously shut - down plants resume operation, elastic demand is suppressed, and the commissioning schedule of new plants may be postponed. In the medium term, the overall supply - demand pattern of LPG has not reversed, with supply from the Middle East and North America continuing to grow, and downstream chemical demand lacking profit - driven growth momentum. The market will remain in a state of oversupply. Therefore, the LPG futures price has short - term support but limited upward momentum and will face pressure again after supply recovers [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 11, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4320 - 4420 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4160 - 4210 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4400 yuan/ton; East China market, 4320 - 4405 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4550 - 4890 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4300 - 4430 yuan/ton; South China market, 4340 - 4500 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of January 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 609 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 599 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4739 yuan/ton for propane and 4661 yuan/ton for butane, up 50 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 603 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 593 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4692 yuan/ton for propane and 4615 yuan/ton for butane, up 50 and 51 yuan/ton respectively [1] Figures - The report includes figures on the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions; spot prices of ether - post C4 in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River, and Northwest regions; and relevant closing prices, price differences, and trading volume data of PG futures contracts [3]