新能源及有色金属日报：下游需求寡淡不改铜价偏强走势-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: Short put [6] 2. Core View of the Report After the interest rate meeting, the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut met expectations. After the 15th delivery, the spot tightness may ease. High copper prices have led to strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, so it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see attitude towards copper prices for now [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On December 11, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 92,250 yuan/ton and closed at 92,210 yuan/ton, a 0.39% change from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 92,700 yuan/ton and closed at 94,080 yuan/ton, a 1.95% increase from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 50 to a premium of 60 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 5 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan drop from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 92,400 to 92,930 yuan/ton. Due to high copper prices approaching the downstream psychological threshold, market purchasing sentiment weakened, and with the year - end delivery approaching, sellers' willingness to sell increased. The premium of high - quality copper dropped from 80 yuan in the morning to 30 yuan. Non - registered copper had a large discount of 300 yuan due to scrap copper substitution. Although there may be some restocking demand on Friday, overall transaction prices will still be under pressure [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: In the US job market, the number of initial jobless claims last week increased by 44,000 to 236,000, the highest increase since March 2020. As of the week ending November 29, the number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.84 million, the largest single - week drop in four years. The US trade deficit in September narrowed by nearly 11% month - on - month to $52.8 billion, significantly lower than the market expectation of $63.3 billion, the lowest since June 2020. Exports rose 3%, reaching the second - highest level in history, while imports only increased by 0.6% [3]. - Mine End: On December 10, Solis Minerals Limited announced that its 100% - owned Cinto copper project in southern Peru obtained a drilling permit. To lock in high - quality drilling targets, Solis completed a series of pre - exploration work. Drilling rig entry and platform preparation will start in December 2025. Chile's Codelco's copper production in October was 111,000 tons, a 14.3% year - on - year decrease; BHP's Escondida copper mine's production in October was 120,600 tons, an 11.7% year - on - year increase; the Collahuasi copper mine's production in October was 35,000 tons, a 29.3% year - on - year decrease [4]. - Smelting and Import: On December 11, the US CFTC adjusted the schedule for releasing position reports for the remaining time in 2025. After resuming normal operations, it will release reports in chronological order, and the first report was released on November 19 (early morning of November 20, Beijing time) [4]. - Consumption: In November 2025, China's domestic copper tube production was 138,300 tons, a 13.55% increase from October. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate in November was 59.69%, a 7.12% increase from the previous month. The increase in household air - conditioner production in November was due to longer production cycles and market demand support during key nodes [5]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 700 tons to 165,850 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,530 tons to 31,461 tons. On December 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 163,000 tons, a change of 2,700 tons from the previous week [5]. Copper Price and Basis Data | Time | 2025 - 12 - 12 | 2025 - 12 - 11 | 2025 - 12 - 05 | 2025 - 11 - 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - SMM: 1 Copper | 5 | 30 | 170 | 55 | | Premium Copper | 45 | 80 | 240 | 120 | | Flat - water Copper | - 25 | - 10 | 120 | 5 | | Wet - process Copper | - 75 | - 50 | 15 | - 55 | | Yangshan Premium | 48 | 48 | 48 | 46 | | LME (0 - 3) | 12 | 0 | 88 | - 15 | | Inventory - LME | 165,850 | 164,975 | 162,825 | 136,250 | | Inventory - SHFE | 88,905 | | 97,930 | | | Inventory - COMEX | 403,848 | 401,925 | 393,975 | 337,749 | | Warehouse Receipt - SHFE | 31,461 | 28,931 | 32,139 | 42,964 | | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipt Ratio | 39.64% | 38.09% | 35.08% | 8.60% | | Arbitrage - CU2603 - CU2512 (Continuous Three - Near Month) | 110 | | 130 | 50 | | Arbitrage - CU2602 - CU2601 (Main - Near Month) | 30 | | 70 | 20 | | CU2602/AL260 | 4.20 | 4.19 | 4.12 | 4.00 | | CU2602/ZN260 | 4.01 | 3.98 | 3.98 | 3.82 | | Import Profit | - 1162 | - 946 | - 1621 | - 723 | | Shanghai - London Ratio (Main) | 7.79 | | 7.95 | 7.96 | 7.99 | [24][25][26][27]