检修陆续结束，下游轮胎开工率环比小幅回升

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are cautiously bearish; BR is neutral [10] Core View of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is expected to continue rising, with domestic port inventories likely to increase further. The downstream tire demand lacks highlights, and the overall supply pressure is greater, so the rubber price is expected to remain weak in the short term. The supply of butadiene rubber remains abundant, and although the supply - demand situation may improve slightly this week, the price of upstream butadiene is expected to fluctuate weakly due to inventory pressure [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,185 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; the BR main contract was 10,710 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,825 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,735 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,580 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In November 2025, about 100,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in China, a month - on - month decrease of about 6% and a year - on - year increase of about 46% [2] - In December, the trading of all - steel tires was dull. Affected by the seasonal off - season, market demand weakened further. With sufficient market supply, channels and terminal stores mainly digested existing inventories, and the enthusiasm for restocking was average. The market transaction price was stable with a weak trend [2] - From January to October 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [2] - In October 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On December 11, 2025, the RU basis was - 335 yuan/ton (+30), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 705 yuan/ton (- 10), the NR basis was 630.00 yuan/ton (- 119.00); the whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (+0), the mixed rubber was 14,480 yuan/ton (- 20), the 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+0); the STR20 was quoted at 1,825 US dollars/ton (- 15), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,480 yuan/ton (- 20) [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.31 Thai baht/kg (+0.17), the price of Thai latex was 55.25 Thai baht/kg (+0.25), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.85), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15) [5] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.55% (+0.55%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.14% (+1.81%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 488,729 tons (+7,167), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,123,406 tons (+20,841), the RU futures inventory was 45,530 tons (+4,130), and the NR futures inventory was 57,355 tons (+6,048) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On December 11, 2025, the BR basis was - 160 yuan/ton (- 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (+0), the quotation of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,600 yuan/ton (+0), the quotation of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,580 yuan/ton (+80), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,200 yuan/ton (+100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,068 yuan/ton (+52) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 70.69% (- 2.84%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,450 tons (+220), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (- 600) [9] Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bearish. The supply of natural rubber continues to rise, domestic port inventories are expected to increase, and downstream tire demand is lackluster. The overall supply pressure is greater, and the domestic market is expected to continue the pattern of slight inventory accumulation. The rubber price is expected to remain weak in the short term [10] - For BR, be neutral. This week, Yulong Petrochemical started maintenance, and the production is expected to decline slightly. The weak price of upstream butadiene raw materials has improved the production profit of private enterprises, and the operating load has increased. The overall supply of butadiene rubber remains abundant. Although the operating rate of tire factories is expected to rise slightly this week, the lack of improvement in tire orders will limit the increase. The supply - demand situation of butadiene rubber may improve slightly this week, but the price of upstream butadiene is expected to fluctuate weakly due to inventory pressure [10]